Time to jump ahead to Hump Day and we have four line moves in college basketball and a flip flop for favorites in the NHL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CBB – (701) DAYTON at (702) ST. JOSEPH’S 6:00 ET CBSSN (side and total)
Dayton has won nine in a row (5-4 ATS) and is trying win first conference title in 16 years, while St. Joseph’s is seeking eighth consecutive home victory (4-1-2 ATS) in series to forge three-way first place tie with the Flyers and VCU at 11-2. The wagering action has been with Dayton, down two points to +1.5. The two clubs have very similar numbers in almost all areas, but we do find when the line is +3 to -3 and teams like St. Joe’s have beaten the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against opponent having gone over the total by 42 or more points in their last seven contests, they are 33-13 ATS the last three seasons. One aspect which does not correlate is rising total, up from 140 to 143. In surveying both teams totals history, Dayton has more Over tendency’s and the Hawks play towards the Under side. Since we prefer the home team, we will back the lower score.
Betting Trend – 52% backing St. Joseph’s and 54% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans St. Joseph’s and Under
CBB – (707) PROVIDENCE at (708) XAVIER 7:00 ET FS1
With the Providence defense not as strong as it was earlier in the season and Xavier averaging 83.1 points a game at home, the total has zoomed from 146.5 to 150 in this Big East encounter. The Friars have been fried more frequently on defense lately, permitting 76.7 PPG compared to current season average of 69.3 PPG. Providence is also 7-1 OVER on the road this season. However, we are leaning the other way with Xavier crossing a key number for them and they are 23-7 UNDER when the total is 150 to 159.5, thus we will call for total in 146 to 148 range.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (743) DUKE at (744) NORTH CAROLINA 9:00 ET ESPN
In looking at Rivalry Week thus far on ESPN, it has pretty much been in branding only for matchups until this dandy. Most sportsbooks sent out North Carolina at -5.5 or -6 and they have been juiced up to -7 or -7.5. We keep being told the Tar Heels are most talented team in the country, yet that is really difficult to swallow when looking at their 9-15 ATS record. Duke has gotten a free pass from most in the media because evidently Amile Jefferson is one of the greatest defensive players and shot-blockers to ever wear a Blue Devils uniform, which was why they lost four of five (1-4 ATS) before winning their past four (2-2 ATS). The Tar Heels would appear to have everything lined up on their side and playing into triple revenge, but North Carolina is 0-7 ATS at home off an ACC win by 10 points or more the last two seasons and 7-11 SU and ATS hosting the Dukies.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Duke
Doug’s VPID Take – Duke covers
NHL – (55) MINNESOTA at (56) CALGARY 10:05 ET FSNO, RSN
Supporting this switch in favorites would take more courage than wearing one of NHL analyst and former head coach Don Cherry’s sport jackets. Calgary was released as -115 home favorite, but Minnesota is now a -125 away pick. The Wild won for just the second time in 16 games on Monday with new interim head coach John Torchetti. Minnesota does bring positives to the party, like a 7-1-1 mark in recent outings with Calgary. If the game comes down to special teams, though the Wild are rather tame, the Flames are a flameout, ranked 29th in power plays and dead last in penalty kills.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 13-14
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 6-8-1