Maybe it is the lack of NBA games before the All-Star break, but plenty happening in both contests for line moves. In college hoops, we have a couple of TV conflicts that have attracted quite a bit of attention. The biggest totals move was James Madison at College of Charleston, at five points higher to 126.5, which would favor the higher scoring Dukes. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
NBA – (701) NEW ORLEANS at (702) OKLAHOMA CITY 8:00 ET TNT (side and total)
First our condolences to Thunder assistant and former New Orleans head coach Monty Williams, who lost his wife Ingrid in car crash yesterday, as both teams prepare with heavy hearts. Oklahoma City has been taken from -10.5 to -12 point favorites and the total is down two digits to 218.5. Seems to be little justification for the Thunder to be larger favorites at 2-7 ATS in last nine and 14-15 ATS as home faves. The total sinking makes more sense with OKC averaging 108.7 points per game at home the Pelicans 98.5 PPG on the road.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Oklahoma City and 51% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New Orleans and Under
Check out the stats, Milwaukee is 20th in the NBA in points allowed at 103.1 and Washington is 26th at 105.5. This is perceived as good enough reason to send the total zooming two points to 213. It does not hurt four of the past five meetings have gone OVER and the Wizards are 8-1 OVER in road games after scoring 100 points or more three straight contests this season. Though we would prefer to go the other way, the home/road dichotomy finds these two 30-15 OVER.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (705) FLORIDA STATE at (706) SYRACUSE 7:00 ET ESPN
Without looking, my least favorite sports “expert” Joe Lunardi probably has Florida State on one of his lists for the NCAA tournament as a team “on the bubble”. After starting ACC action 0-3, the Seminoles have won six of eight (4-3-1 ATS), including last four in a row. In spite of Syracuse actually hotter at 6-1 (5-2 ATS), Florida State is a sinking underdog, down from +4 to +2.5 at the Carrier Dome. On board with the thinking that the Orange are 6-15 ATS off a home win since last season, but the Noles have not figured out the Syracuse 2-3 zone the last couple seasons, shooting under 40 percent and not sure where they will do a lot better this time, especially at 13-28 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Syracuse
Doug’s VPID Take – Syracuse covers
CBB – (753) OREGON at (754) CALIFORNIA 9:00 ET ESPN2
Oregon has been the class of the Pac-12 all season, but could be in for a tussle in Berkeley tonight. The Ducks are 9-2 (8-3 ATS) in conference play and face a California crew that is unbeaten at home at 14-0 and 9-5 ATS. This helped reconfigure oddsmakers thoughts, with the Golden Bears shifted from +2.5 to a Pick. While we understand more about Oregon today than when Pac-12 play began, interesting to note the Ducks were only a 3.5-point home favorite on Jan.6th in Eugene against Cal and won 68-65 and were close to the same opening favorite having changed venues. This should be a super conflict and we will lean with the home team.
Betting Trend – 51% backing California
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean California
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 6-12
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 3-4-1