Five line moves to follow on Hump Day in the NBA or college basketball, two in a big SEC showdown. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here Thursday.
NBA – (507) DENVER at (508) DETROIT 7:35 ET ALT, FSD
Had to agree with NBA bettors that opening total of 210 seemed high for this matchup. Maybe we all are missing something, but the number has been lowered to 208.5. The season averages of the two teams give no indication of a higher score nor does their recent play. The past three contests have closed between 204.5 and 205.5 and they were 2-0-1 UNDER. However, the oddsmakers had their reasons for such a number and Denver is 18-7 OVER when the total is 200 to 209.5 and Detroit is 18-7 OVER when playing six or more games in 10 days this season. This might go back up later today.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Over
NBA – (513) L.A. CLIPPERS at (514) BOSTON 7:35 ET PRIME, CSN-NE
Both Los Angeles and Boston have been playing exceptional basketball of late, but it is the Clippers, at least early, which is drawing bettors attention. The Clips opened as +2 point underdogs and were shifted to a Pick, likely because the Celtics expended so much energy in fantastic fourth quarter comeback in Milwaukee, only to lose on boneheaded play with under a second left 112-111. While that could be exhausting defeat, Boston is 9-3 and 8-4 ATS without rest this season. However, L.A. is 18-9 and 14-11-2 ATS away from home and is 19-9 ATS on the road versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game in the second half of the season the last two years.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Los Angeles
CBB – (533) LSU at (534) SOUTH CAROLINA 7:00 ET ESPN2 (side and total)
Huge battle in the SEC with two of the top teams. LSU is in first place at 8-2 (4-6 ATS) and travels to South Carolina, who is tied for second place at 7-3 (6-4 ATS). Sportsbooks have sent the Gamecocks down from -4.5 to -3 in spite of their 12-0 and 7-2 ATS home record. The Bengal Tigers on the other hand are 3-6 and 2-7 ATS away from Baton Rouge. Coming off big 81-78 upset at Texas A&M, South Carolina is 9-0 ATS after posting 80 or more points. The total has also come crashing down from 155 to 152 and coach Frank Martin’s club is 6-0 UNDER after a road win, while LSU is 7-1 UNDER after scoring 85 or more points.
Betting Trend – 52% backing LSU and 60% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – South Carolina covers and Under
CBB – (565) TULSA at (566) SMU 9:00 ET CBCSN
With no postseason options, SMU can only play to win the AAC regular season title and are in first place. The Mustangs are double digit favorites over Tulsa, but it is the total which is on the move, altered two points lower to 142.5. SMU’s defense might be able to hold the Golden Hurricane under season average of 73.3 PPG on the road, however, the Mustangs should reach 80 and are 9-2 OVER after permitting 60 or fewer points. Toss in Tulsa is 6-0 OVER after a home triumph of 10 or more, I’m going against the line move.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 6-8
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 3-3-1