Time to move ahead to Thursday’s line moves and breakdown a number of fascinating contests in the NBA, MLB and NHL. Also, take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (709) SAN ANTONIO at (710) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET TNT (side and total)
With two home losses in their last three games, Golden State has no margin of error to make NBA history and will have to beat the team with second-best record in the league twice in four days to even have a shot. The Warriors have been moved up two points to -7 over San Antonio and frankly are unaware if this because of bettors backing the Warriors or San Antonio resting players. The total also crumbled from 212.5 to 209 which is all suspicious. For Golden State to cover, they cannot be so turnover-prone. If the Spurs are at full strength, have to take them and the UNDER for this one.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Golden State and 77% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Antonio and Under
MLB – (903) MIAMI at (904) WASHINGTON 4:05 ET FSFL, MASN (side and total)
Washington swept Atlanta and Miami was swept by Detroit, as both prepare for four-game series. Nationals starter Tanner Roark is not giving off much confidence coming off 4-7 season with a 4.38 ERA, splitting time in the bullpen and starting. And while most baseball fans outside Miami metro are unfamiliar with Marlins starter Adam Conley, Washington has been lowered from -150 to -120 or less as home favorites. With these two starters, bettors are seeing runs scored and lifted the total from 8 to 8.5. Hard to get excited about either pitcher, but the value is now on Washington and we will lean line move on total with the Nats 24-12 OVER against lefties.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Washington and 87% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins and Lean Over
MLB – (905) L.A. DODGERS at (906) SAN FRANCISCO 4:35 ET SNLA, CSBA
The first of 19 bitter ballgames in a feisty rivalry starts with San Francisco’s home opener. Though Los Angeles pitchers have yet to give up a run after sweeping San Diego, the belief is that will change and total has really been juiced from 7 to 8. The simplest explanation for this is Dodgers starter Alex Wood, who pitched well in 2013-14 in Atlanta, but was deemed expendable by the Braves and was quite ineffective for the Braves and Dodgers last year. Though still only 25, Wood was knocked around all spring and many have doubts about him in this contest. Though Giants starter Jake Peavy has long time Under tendencies, L.A. is 14-4 OVER off three straight wins against division rivals since 2014.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NHL – (69) ST. LOUIS at (70) CHICAGO 8:35 ET FSMW, CSN-C
Both Central Division teams have plenty to play for, yet still might rest some players wanting to be as fresh as possible for postseason. Chicago opened as -130 favorites and are 26-14 SU at the United Center. However, the Blackhawks are down to -115, in part because St. Louis knows how to win on the road at 24-16 and have split two away games with Chicago this season. Both teams just beat Arizona decidedly, but have reacted differently in each case. St. Louis is 6-0 in road games after a win by three goals or more, while the Hawks are 1-6 at home after a blowout win by four goals or more.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 56-62
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 34-32-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 88-95-1