For the line moves today, we are baseball heavy with bettors at least to this point satisfied with what they see in the NBA and NHL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are winning consistently at 35-22, to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.
MLB – (953) PITTSBURGH at (954) COLORADO 3:10 ET ROOT-P, ROOT-RM
Having played deep into the night with extra inning contest which lasted nearly five hours, these NL clubs have a just after 1:00 local time game on a getaway day for both. Without a doubt this plays directly into the total sinking from 11.5 to 11 this matinee, despite two starting pitchers who have combined road/home ERA’s of 13.95 this season. From a pure baseball perspective, this makes sense and would not be surprised to see a lot of first pitch swings today. Because it is at Coors Field, an Over is always possible, yet we did discover Pittsburgh is 16-5 UNDER after four or more consecutive wins since last season.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (957) ST. LOUIS at (958) ARIZONA 9:40 ET FSMW, FSAZ
Trying to wrap my head around why St. Louis and Michael Wacha are dipping from -125 to -115 road favorites at Arizona. The Cardinals have won eight of past 10 in downtown Phoenix. Wacha and the Redbirds are 15-4 in the first half of season since last year and with the Diamondbacks 4-9 at home and 13-29 in April since 2014, challenging to make a case for the Snakes. We did find there is a possibility the Cards offense, which is averaging crazy 6.2 runs a game, could cool off, since they are 15-31 after five straight games where they had 10 or more hits. I’m sticking with St. Louis to win and I would look the OVER, as I have four angles that are sensational 30-0 OVER for tonight.
Betting Trend – 75% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
MLB – (959) MIAMI at (960) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET MLBN
Here is something to think about from Elias Sports. In the last 103 years, 76 pitchers have opened their careers with four straight quality starts, but the Dodgers Kenta Maeda (3-0, 0.36 ERA) is the only one to yield just one earned run. As impressive as this is, he and Los Angeles are crumbling favorites from -135 to -125 or less. Why, having lost first three games in series to Miami has a lot to do with it, along with facing Marlins ace Jose Fernandez (1-2, 4.37) starting. You would not think L.A. would get swept at home in four by Miami, yet Fernandez club is 3-0 when he starts against the Dodgers. Just a lean with Los Angeles avoids the brooms, being 24-6 after a game where they had four or less hits the last three seasons.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Dodgers
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Dodgers
MLB – (963) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (964) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET CSN-C, MASN2
Not sure your thoughts, but my initial inclination on this contest having a tumbling total seemed wrong. The total went from 9 to 8.5 despite John Danks the Chicago starter. Danks ERA thus far is 6.23 and with the White Sox on the hook for over 15 million on him, trading him is unlikely and they would still have to pay the bulk of his salary or making him a high-priced long reliever is hard to swallow. Tyler Wilson is making his second start since coming out of the pen and has been a spot starter in the past for the Orioles. Chicago is 15-5 UNDER this season thanks to outstanding pitching by everyone not named Danks, but with Baltimore offense in a funk (5 runs last four games) and the O’s 11-2 UNDER when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season, maybe there is something to this.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 76-76-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 53-45-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 124-122-2