Sports Betting Line Moves and Free Picks for April 21st


Thursday’s line moves cover all three major sports and have a distinct Houston and Pittsburgh flavor. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, which are red hot again at 23-13, to see what we are thinking. See you back here on tomorrow.
Rockets player preparing to play defense.

NBA – (537) GOLDEN STATE at (538) HOUSTON 9:35 ET  TNT

With Stephen Curry listed as doubtful for Game 3, once again the total has been sinking, now down from 217 to 215.5. However, with Houston matador defense (Ole’), no Under is safe. With Golden State averaging 112.4 points a game in last seven with the Rockets, even without Curry, one could surmise the Warriors will get their points. How the NBA’s most dysfunctional playoff roster does is another matter, but chances are even they will care about trying to win this tilt and the Rockets soar to 22-10 OVER after allowing 110 points or more this season.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (909) PITTSBURGH at (910) SAN DIEGO  9:10 ET    ROOT-P, FSSD

Pittsburgh’s long road trip has found quite a bit of turbulence in losing first two games against San Diego team that started the homestand 4-9. The Pirates will attempt to salvage one contest and the pitching matchup at least on the computer screen of Gerrot Coles and James Shields looks pretty good. However, both have been so-so with ERA’s over 4 and the total has been lifted from 6.5 to 7. With the Padres 14-5 OVER as a home underdog of +100 to +125 and Shields 16-6 OVER when the total is 7 or less since joining the Friars, like where this going.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (923) HOUSTON at (924) TEXAS  8:05 ET  ROOT-SW, FSSW

Texas has lassoed Houston twice in this series, but has a tougher task in trying to beat Dallas Keuchel. Nonetheless, the Astros ace is 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in six overall starts in Arlington. This has not stopped the sportsbooks from lowering the total from 8 to 7.5. With Houston 15-5 OVER in April since last year and the Rangers 16-6 OVER at home after scoring two runs or less, my inclination is to see more scoring.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NHL – (23) PITTSBURGH at (24) N.Y. RANGERS  7:05 ET  CNBC

Having won Game 3, Pittsburgh has taken back home ice advantage against New York. Game 4 started as Pick, but now has the Penguins at -120 or higher at sportsbooks checked. The New York papers questioned the Rangers game strategy, which they stated led to the loss and even a few players were quoted as saying Pittsburgh was well prepared defensively for what they were facing. Pittsburgh is the better team and has won 16 of 19, yet the Blueshirts have not taken losing at MSG lightly and are 7-0 at home after suffering a home setback this season.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Pittsburgh

Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 67-76

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 47-39-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 114-111-1


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