The NBA playoffs commence this weekend and for line moves, a couple totals have been altered. All has been quiet on the hockey front and in baseball we have a few line moves for Friday and looks at compelling series wagering. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here on Monday.
MLB – (903) MILWAUKEE at (904) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSWI, ROOT-P (side and total)
After sweeping St. Louis to start the season, Pittsburgh has lost season to Cincinnati and Detroit, which has caused a loss of faith even against Milwaukee, with the Pirates slipping from -145 to -130. The pitching has been the problem, permitting five or more runs in six of nine assignments. Jeff Locke has made one quality start, but Brewers Jimmy Nelson has two and with both offenses under 4.0 runs a game, the total has slide from 8 to 7.5. With Pitt 21-6 versus NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game and Locke 12-2 OVER against a NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse, I’ll follow the numbers.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Pittsburgh and 77% on the Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Pittsburgh and Over
MLB – (927) KANSAS CITY at (928) OAKLAND 10:05 ET FSKC, CSN-CA
Many sportsbooks opened this tilt as Pick, but by midday, Oakland was a -115 choice. I could see it if Edinson Volquez (1-0, 1.54 ERA) was not throwing well for Kansas City, but he is and the A’s Rich Hill (1-1, 3.12) is the kind of pitcher the patient Royals batters generally handle. Maybe Oakland wins, however, they are scoring 2.7 RPG and have lost 15 of past 20 April home games.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins
NBA – Saturday (501) INDIANA at (502) TORONTO 12:35 ET ESPN
This is early on and could change by game time, yet at this time the total in the NBA Playoffs lid-lifter is down from 196 to 194.5. No real pattern would explain the line movement, though most bettors might be counting on slower pace and longer possessions of typical playoff basketball. I’m inclined to think OVER the number, with Toronto likely to dictate the pace and the average Indiana contest playing into revenge as a favorite is 205 total points.
Betting Trend – 50-50 wager
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NBA – Sunday (511) CHARLOTTE at (512) MIAMI 5:35 ET TNT
This should be one of the best first round matchup of the playoffs and early on the total crumbled from 202 to 200. This does not connect with the recent history as 10 of the past 16 conflicts have been OVER’s, including all eight in South Beach. I will ride the tide of higher scores in Miami and believe both offenses which have been in great form stay that way.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – SAN FRANCISCO (+135) at L.A. DODGERS (-160) – Series Betting
Despite the line, tonight’s Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Kershaw matchup is a tossup when both are still in game. Even Johnny Cueto against Scott Kazmir looks tight, making the ESPN Sunday contest likely the series winner. The is scheduled to be Jeff Samardzija vs. Kenta Maeda and we will give a slight nod to Dodgers playing with quick turnaround revenge and not trusting Smards in a game that matters.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Los Angeles at -160
MLB – N.Y. METS (+115) at CLEVELAND (-135) – Series Betting
Heavy is the crown of champion and the Mets are not enjoying being NL champs to start the season. After rocky beginning, the Indians won series at Tampa Bay and will look to start to reach preseason billing. In spite of having like 15 quality starting pitchers under 27 years old, the Metropolitans will turn to their favorite blanket, 40-something Bartolo Colon in the opener. They are small underdogs to Cody Anderson and the Tribe and will have to do better than 2.5 RPG. The next two days with feature three underperforming hurlers named Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Corey Kluber, the latter two meeting in series wrap up. Not sure where New York is mentally and will back home team.
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Cleveland at -135
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 66-71
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 42-35-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 107-101-1