Happy Valentine’s to everyone as we have the weekend edition of line moves. Here we will cover the Friday action, plus look at the college basketball games this weekend along with the NBA All-Star game. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks to see what we are thinking. See you back here on President’s Day.
CBB – (865) MONMOUTH at (866) RIDER 9:00 ET ESPNU
With this year having so much parity in college basketball, one theory gaining traction is conferences which usually only have one team in the NCAA tournament, could have another if they have the right resume and they fail to win postseason tournament. One club being discussed is Monmouth out of the MAAC, who besides leading the conference has wins over UCLA, USC, Notre Dame, Georgetown and a three-point loss to Dayton. Our attention was grabbed by the total falling two points to 140.5, because the betting trend does not in any way support this. Best guess is large UNDER wager and expect the number to return to previous level by game time. However, Monmouth is 11-4 UNDER as a favorite this season.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Last night some bettors were out of luck when the Kings goalie Jonathan Quick was a late scratch and they lost 5-2 to the Islanders. Quick is not expected to play tonight either against the New York Rangers, yet Los Angeles has gained traction as underdog, dropping from +115 to -105. Granted, L.A. is 7-0 in road games after allowing four goals or more, but not with backup netminder and the Blueshirts are 15-2 at home off a division road victory. Update – Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist reported to be given rest tonight.
Betting Trend – 90% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins (now slight lean)
NHL – (11) NASHVILLE at (12) TAMPA BAY 7:35 ET FSTN, SUN
Tampa Bay just lost two road games after winning 10 of 11, but is money is moving against them, down 25 cents to -125. For me this does not make a lot of sense unless Ben Bishop is not in goal. The Lightning have won eight in row at home, while Nashville is 10-20 after two or more consecutive Over’s.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Tampa Bay wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 10-13
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 3-4-1
CBB – (513) KENTUCKY at (514) SOUTH CAROLINA 12:00 ET ESPN
Two of the three leaders of the SEC collide at high noon. Kentucky has generally been playing better but is still 2-5 SU and ATS in true road games and will be without Alex Poythress, who is out for two weeks with a knee injury. South Carolina is very balanced offensively and has just knocked off Texas A&M and LSU and has the maturity to win.
Anticipated Line – Kentucky by 1-2 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean South Carolina (at these numbers)
CBB – (523) KANSAS at (524) OKLAHOMA 2:30 ET ESPN
After how great the last game was, almost impossible to imagine this could be repeat. Oklahoma’s three-point shooting has been a little off of late, under 35 percent, compared to season average of 45.1%. The Sooners are also just 4-11 ATS in last 15, while the Jayhawks are 13-1 and 7-4 ATS in all games not in Lawrence.
Anticipated Line – Oklahoma by 3-5 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas
CBB – (557) LOUISVILLE at (558) NOTRE DAME 4:00 ET ESPN2
Louisville has not lost two in a row all season and will look to avoid the indignity at Notre Dame. The Cardinals are not the same team on the road at 3-4 and 1-6 ATS and face an Irish club that has shown ample fight in knocking off then No.1 North Carolina and winning at Clemson two days later this past week.
Anticipated Line – Louisville by 1-2 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Notre Dame covers
CBB – (605) WISCONSIN at (606) MARYLAND 6:30 ET ESPN
Wisconsin is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run out and is playing very well and catching this many points could really test Maryland. Terrapins won buzzer-beater 63-60 in Madison last month, setting up interesting matchup.
Anticipated Line – Maryland by 9-11 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Wisconsin covers
CBB – (631) VIRGINIA at (632) DUKE 4:30 ET ESPN
Terrific matchup of veteran Virginia club that is playing best basketball of season against much younger Duke squad that is playing like they believe in themselves again. The Cavaliers would seem to be the better squad, but 2-6 ATS road record in puzzling.
Anticipated Line – Duke by 2-4 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Virginia
CBB – Sunday (843) INDIANA at (844) MICHIGAN STATE 1:00 ET CBS
Off solid win over Iowa after Penn State puzzler, Indiana will have to play great to hold on to first place in Big Ten race. Michigan State is 4-1 (5-0 ATS) in their last five, with one-point OT loss at Purdue. Spartans could be tough here.
Anticipated Line – Michigan State by 6-8 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Michigan State
CBB – Sunday (863) USC at (864) ARIZONA 8:00 ET FS1
Both teams actually are playing on Friday, night, thus we will not know results but this figures to be very good game with arguably the two best rosters in the Pac-12. If USC beats Arizona State and Arizona has a tougher time with UCLA, the Trojans could cover.
Anticipated Line – Arizona by 7-9 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Arizona
NBA – Sunday (841) WEST vs. (842) EAST 8:00 ET TNT
I have never bet on an All-Star in any sport and not going to now, though I have written about them at various websites. As of posting, the West was a six-point favorite with total up to 314.5. Enjoy if you like.
Betting Trend – 63% backing West and 73% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Passing