Should Past Trends Influence Super Bowl 50 Picks?

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With a full two weeks between games, football bettors can get information overload from the mountain of numbers that will come their way for golden anniversary of Super Bowl 50.

Sides and totals betting is just a small part of the festivities, with literally hundreds of prop bets coming in all kinds of different forms. Nevertheless, for most fans it is about the game (well the commercials and parties also), and trying to sort through the intel can become mind-numbing. Considering the spread should be quite close, what should you be checking into to help make your decision?

For those wanting to go over the NFL odds with a microscope before placing bets on NFL picks, check these angles out.

Angle 1 – Teams that Rush the Ball More

While this is considered old school approach, it still works. Being able to run the ball creates two advantages. If a team has success early in the game, this means they are controlling the line of scrimmage, which invariably helps the passing game. If a team with a lead is successfully able to do this in the fourth quarter, they are salting games away. In all, the club that has the most rushing yards are 37-12 SU and 34-12-3 ATS, 73.9 percent.

Angle 2 – Yards Per Pass Attempt Matter

This will often be a meaningful number, because it directly relates to the number of big plays a quarterback will complete (or not), which has a direct impact on the final score. Here we are able to plainly see this matters with 41-8 SU and 36-11-3 ATS marks. Take the time to study not only how the quarterbacks perform in this situation, but how the defenses all do.

Angle 3 – Understanding  Super Bowl Totals

The old axiom – Defense Win Championships – applies to the outcome of the game, not necessarily what the final score is against the oddsmakers total. Though a few quarterbacks have won the Big Game despite unimpressive careers, they could be counted on when needed that particular season, contributing to total being 19-11-1 OVER in the Super Bowls with official listed totals. Having an elite signal caller often will lead to points, as this stat back up. Since we believe the spread will be close and total will reach at least 47, if the game plays out as anticipated, both clubs will reach 20 points, leading to 10-1 OVER record.

 

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