The Houston Texans gave a very impressive performance and handled the Titans with such ease they seemed less frightening and more like Eros. The Cleveland Browns have gone from the depths of NFL history to just a below average football team and they travel to H-Town to do battle.
When the NFL odds were released on this AFC contest, it was not shock and awe, rather, eyebrows raised, followed by an audible “hmmm”. The opening line at most sportsbooks was Houston at -6.5 and even after their beatdown of Tennessee, by late Tuesday morning the Texans were down to -6.
Become a VPID Inner Circle and Receive Plays from FIVE of the Best Documented Handicapping Experts on the Planet, plus Super Systems, Wise Guys plays and so much more. Only $99.99 a month for all sports (auto renewal), cancel at any time. https://www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com/membership/
That’s right, a team riding an eight-game winning streak, that gets three points for being at home is thought to be only a field goal better than the Browns. “hmmm”
From here, decided to try and understand why Houston was not more than touchdown favorite and put on my Pytheas mask (Greek explorer) to seek answers.
Having started the season 0-3 SU & ATS, the Texans were not going to be a public darling, yet, during this winning streak, they are a respectable 5-2-1 ATS. However, coach Bill O’Brien’s club has not been dominate, winning five times by a touchdown or less and having a score differential of 8.2 PPG.
Cleveland is a better team since cutting Hue Jackson loose and in their past two contests, they have whipped Atlanta and Cincinnati.
In looking at my various power ratings, they have Houston winning from 6.5 to 11 points. With this, for NFL picks, the Texans get the call and the Brownies fall to 3-14 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 64% or higher.