We close out this weekend’s NFL action with a pair of games and we thoroughly break down the total for each contest and offer an informed free selection.
It sure seemed the opening total of 47 of this AFC affair was correct, but those betting football did not agree and by Monday night this total was down to 45 points. Like the sun rising on Wednesday morning, so did the NFL odds on the total to 45.5. Will we see this total creep ever closer to its original starting point?
In one facet, it would seem so if we consider season averages. For all games played, the Los Angeles Chargers are at 46.9 total points and at 46 for all away contests. For New England’s 16-game slate, they have totaled 47.5 points a contest and at home that rises to 49.5.
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But in the last decade, more frequently it is not how you played all season, but how you have played down the stretch and that is precisely what has influenced this total. Since December, the average score of a Chargers contest has slid to 45.6 points and Patriots are all the way down to 41 points. With this seemingly conflicting information, what is the correct way to make NFL picks? Patience.
Unless the weather forecast changes to snow, cold and wind at Gillette Stadium, the total is unlikely to sink below 45. The latest form of each team suggests a lower score and the Bolts are 6-0 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive Under’s and 10-1 UNDER after a road win. While New England has a long history of higher scoring, this team does not and is 11-5 UNDER this season. Wait to see if the line keeps rising towards 47 and when it stops, grab the best number for the UNDER.