There has been very little line moves early in the week on sides, with the most severe action happening on the totals side. Plus, we have added bonus of MAC attack game that goes tonight. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (324-260 of late and recent 109-86 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
CFB – Tonight – (305) TOLEDO at (306) AKRON 8:00 ET ESPN2
Another weekday MAC attack game and both teams are coming off losses. The major betting interest in this game has been the total, up from 68.5 to 72. I’m not in favor of this line movement. Thought Akron is a poor defensive team, they are 11-1 UNDER off a MAC loss by 10 or more points. Also, Toledo is 14-3 UNDER on the road when the total is 63 or higher.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (457) DALLAS at (458) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET FOX
With Cleveland allowing 29.7 PPG, how are they going to slow Dallas offense which is averaging close to that same score (28.4) in their five games? That is what others are wondering also and the total has climbed from 46.5 to 48. Though the adjustment seems right, the Cowboys are 9-2 UNDER on the road the last two years.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
NFL – (459) N.Y. JETS at (460) MIAMI 1:00 ET CBS
With both teams scoring less than 21 points a contest, one can make the case for a lower score and the total has slipped from 45 to 44. Yet, a closer look at the numbers finds Miami averaging 26.2 PPG at home, while New York has given up 28.4 PPG in five road assignments. Time to go against the grain.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Over
NFL – (465) CAROLINA at (466) LOS ANGELES 4:05 ET FOX
With Los Angeles scoring just only 17.1 PPG and Carolina defense finally at least resembling last year’s tea, the total has sunk from 46 to 44.5. Not sure I’m on board with this move, but will not argue that when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and an average team like Carolina (+/- 3 PPG differential), goes again against weaker team like the Rams(-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game, the UNDER is 44-15.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
NFL – (467) INDIANAPOLIS at (468) GREEN BAY 4:25 ET CBS
In this nonconference clash, we have two quarterbacks who can spin the ball and two secondary’s who are thinner than a walkway model in Paris. Unless either team finds a pass rush that can put the pressure on all day long, the total going from 52.5 to 54 makes sense. Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER away after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
NFL – (469) TENNESSEE at (470) SAN DIEGO 4:25 ET CBS
With San Diego’s offense sporting 6-2 OVER record, the total dropping from 48.5 to 47 might be puzzling. This is particularly true with Tennessee also 6-2 OVER. Maybe the defenses rise to the occasion, but that seems unlikely and instead we will consider current form for both AFC clubs and follow that direction.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 244-235-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 163-127-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 415-381-3