Let’s begin by wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving and hope you have a wonderful day. For Week 12 in the NFL, we have all the line moves for the turkey day games and Sunday also, along with bonus college football game for Thursday night. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (374-291 of late and recent 157-118 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
CFB – Thursday – (113) LSU at (114) TEXAS A&M 7:30 ET ESPN
Three weeks ago, this SEC clash was setup to be more interesting than NFL contest on Thanksgiving night, but that has changed, with both teams losing games and important players. Bettors were not sure this will as low scoring as advertised and pushed the total from 43 to 45. LSU at 9-1 UNDER still looks pretty good. Update – The total on this contest keeps climbing, now up to 48.5. Just too much defense for my taste from the Tigers.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – Thursday – (109) WASHINGTON at (110) DALLAS 4:30 ET FOX
The total in this Thanksgiving afternoon affair is filling up like plate as the turkey is being carved from 48.5 to 52. Both teams are in the Top 9 in scoring and Washington is 8-2 OVER this season and 10-1 OVER after scoring 40 or more points. Given the spread and the total, Dallas is 14-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points. Seems pretty obvious which direction I see this going.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – Thursday – (111) PITTSBURGH at (112) INDIANAPOLIS 8:30 ET NBC (side and total)
With Andrew Luck expected out and Scott Tolzien in as the Colts quarterback, Indianapolis went from +2.5 to +7.5 and the total fell from 53.5 to 48. That really alters and the mechanics of this night game makes wagering quite difficult. I liked the Under to begin with at original number since Pittsburgh had only scored 31 offensive points in last two road games and will stick with it.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over and 64% on Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under and Pass
NFL – (251) SAN DIEGO at (252) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
Understand records are not everything, but San Diego flipped from +1 to -2 at Houston is newsworthy. While it is true San Diego is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS against Houston, backing the Chargers takes courage, as they are 4-13 SU in games decided by seven or less points. One also has to think about the Texans being 5-0 (4-0-1 ATS) at home this season and 12-3 ATS against losing teams.
Betting Trend – 68% backing San Diego
NFL – (253) TENNESSEE at (254) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS (side and total)
Tennessee squandered a great opportunity in not being ready to play against a team they had lost 10 straight to Indianapolis and once again has to pick up the mess they created. The wagering public liked their chances to do so in the Windy City and sent the Titans from -2 to -3.5, before the news that Jay Cutler is ‘out’ and Matt Barkley win be under center for Chicago and the Bears went to +4.5. This also impacted the total which fell from 45.5 to 42. Still, backing Tennessee with 2-9 ATS record versus losing teams has to be thought-provoking.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Tennessee
NFL – (255) JACKSONVILLE at (256) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
With LeSean McCoy a question mark and receivers Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins not expected to play, that places a great deal on QB Tyrod Taylor to come through and lead the Buffalo offense. There are quite a few skeptics about that happening and the total has fallen from 47 to 45. It would appear the only way this AFC contest goes over is more Blake Bortles Pick 6’s.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Over
NFL – (257) CINCINNATI at (258) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET CBS
With no A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, the Bengals lost season could go further south and they have been elevated from +3 to +4.5 at Baltimore. In spite of the loss of valuable personnel, Cincinnati should at least have confidence, having knocked off the Ravens five consecutive times and are 29-15 ATS in road games in Weeks 10 through 13.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Baltimore
NFL – (261) SAN FRANCISCO at (262) MIAMI 1:00 ET FOX
With the Miami defense improving and San Francisco’s doing the same, the total has been tumbling from 46.5 to 44.5. The 49ers lack of scoring also plays into the mix. Here are couple long term angles that fit into this, with the Dolphins 30-16 UNDER off an upset win as a road underdog and the Fins 42-21 UNDER in home games after allowing 14 points or less.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Under
NFL – (267) SEATTLE at (268) TAMPA BAY 4:05 ET FOX
With the Seattle Express picking up steam, bettors are jumping on board and have sent the Seahawks from -4.5 to -6. That is not the only aspect for the line movement, with Tampa Bay being dreadful 6-15 against the spread at home since 2014 also an important factor. Betting public loves Seattle early.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Seattle
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 274-258-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 174-147-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 468-434-5