It is the Halloween weekend and will line moves in the NFL bring tricks or treats? Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (312-253 of late and recent 97-79 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL – (251) WASHINGTON vs. (252) CINCINNATI 9:30am ET FOX *New Total
Another London game (yawn) and this one has Cincinnati bumped up from -2 to -3 over Washington. The Redskins have the better record and the Bengals are only 2-4-1 ATS, yet oddsmakers are looking at the talent of the two squads and prefer Cincinnati. This does not mean Cincy covers, however, these Cats are 9-2 ATS away after gaining 450 or more yards. Update – Those on Pacific time like yours truly have to up and ready for this 6:30 am start and while the Bengals are still -3 favorites, the total has exploded from 46 to 49.5. I am aware of lots of sharp money making this occur, but not on board with 24-4 system I have on a lower score.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Cincinnati and 82% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington and Under
NFL – (257) SEATTLE at (258) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET FOX *New*
Bettors are looking at Seattle offense without the legs of Russell Wilson and how well Drew Brees and New Orleans plays inside and dropped the Seahawks from -3.5 to -2. However, at that price this brings Seattle back into the picture as value play because of the Saints defense and keep in mind home teams when the line is +3 to -3 off one or more Under’s, with a poor first half defense permitting 14 or more points per game are 17-43 ATS, losing by 5.7 PPG since 2007.
Betting Trend – 51% backing New Orleans
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
NFL – (259) NEW ENGLAND at (260) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Somebody is smelling a strong scent in the air and it has to do with revenge. With Tom Brady back and New England having suffered stinging 16-0 home loss to Buffalo, the public consensus is the Patriots will not be satisfied with just a win, but seeking more and they have been sent from -5.5 to -6.5. The Pats are 19-8 ATS away playing with home revenge. Update – Holy crap, the updated information is all over the board with New England all over the board from -5.5 to -7 with no rhyme or reason on types of sportsbooks.
Betting Trend – 80% backing New England
Doug’s VPID Take – New England covers
NFL – (261) N.Y. JETS at (262) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
No, the reason the Jets has sunk from -4.5 to -3 over winless Cleveland is not because Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as Gang Green’s QB. (Though it would be a good reason) Rather, it is the plethora of New York injuries and the Browns getting back QB 2.0, Josh McCown from injury, who is now upgraded to ‘Probable’. Update – After being quiet most of the week, Cleveland is now at +2.5 as of Saturday evening. While I would like to see the Browns win for the fans sake, cannot back them under a field goal.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Jets
NFL – (263) OAKLAND at (264) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET CBS
Despite Oakland 10-2 ATS on the road the last two years and 8-0 ATS a away underdogs, the Raiders are up to +1.5 from a Pick at Tampa Bay. Back to back games in Florida is noteworthy to that line of thinking and the Buccaneers are off 2-0 road trip as underdogs. Nonetheless, the Bucs are winless at home and Oakland is 4-0 ATS on the road. Update – The Raiders went from a +1.5 to -1 as of Saturday morning, but later in the day it was back to a Pick. Black and Silver on the road has been gold.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Oakland covers
NFL – (267) SAN DIEGO at (268) DENVER 4:05 ET CBS
I did a video this week and was mocked for taking San Diego at +6.5 because Denver is in big revenge spot, having lost to the Chargers on what will be 17 days ago on Sunday. However, I was not the only person liking how San Diego is playing offensively, while still having questions about the Broncos offense and the Bolts are now sitting at +5.5. Update – This has continued to fall with Denver now at -4 which has taken me from a Play On situation to a lean.
Betting Trend – 52% backing San Diego
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Diego
NFL – Monday – (273) MINNESOTA at (274) CHICAGO 8:30 ET ESPN *New*
Has Minnesota been exposed without running game? Certainly enough bettors think so, since as the week progressed the Vikings ship has taken on water and sunk from -6 to -4.5 in the Windy City. I can come up several reasons why Chicago could be intriguing play here, but Jay Cutler makes the Bears hard to back against the Minnesota defense. Not sure how you go against team that is on 19-4 ATS run.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (8-13 record) – Patriots, Raiders and Cowboys
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (12-9 record) – Packers/Falcons OVER, Jets/Browns OVER and Bengals/Redskins OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 239-225-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 160-127-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 406-371-3