NFL Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 2


Time to look all the happenings in NFL line moves for those betting football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (235-185 of late and recent 19-11 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday

NFL – (265) MIAMI at (266) NEW ENGLAND 1:00 ET  CBS (side and total)

With all the missing parts, not many figured the New England could compete in Arizona. Instead, they shocked everybody and won the game outright, which has direct impact on betting for Miami matchup. The Patriots were elevated from -5.5 to -6.5 and total slipped a digit to 41.5. The total is more attractive than the side for my money early. Update- Nothing happening all week on the side or total, however, New England is down almost 20 percent on bets placed on them and it has gone from 55% on the UNDER to 69% on the Over.

Betting Trend – 61% backing New England and 69% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans New England and Under

NFL – (271) DALLAS at (272) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET  FOX		The Redskins offense had no running game or rhythm against Pittsburgh on Monday night in 38-16 thrashing. Dak Prescott gave a strong accounting of himself in rookie start, but the fact remains the Giants had three touchdown drives with veteran quarterback and Dallas has one. With both these NFC East still trying to find right gear, those betting NFL football have lowered total from 46.5 to 45. Update- A small buyback on the total to 45.5, public sees this as a higher scoring game than oddsmakers. Going against public here.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (273) NEW ORLEANS at (274) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)

New Orleans had Oakland beat and like the fish that got away coming into the boat, the Saints let the Raiders slip away and lost 35-34. The Giants did nothing special in win over Dallas, with stats and score almost dead even, which could be why New York is down a digit to -4.5 against New Orleans and Drew Brees. Last year’s meeting ended 52-49 final and neither defense really improved dramatically and the total has jumped from 51.5 to 53. Update- Total has continued to climb, now sitting at 53.5 or 54 depending on the sportsbook. Enough New York money on the Giants has them moved to -5.

Betting Trend – 57% backing New Orleans and 84% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – New Orleans covers and Over

NFL – (279) SEATTLE at (280) LOS ANGELES  4:05 ET  FOX *New*

While Russell Wilson is expected to play, the Rams have matched up well with Seattle’s offense and Los Angeles should be jacked for home game in La-La Land. If San Francisco can shutout L.A. offense, you would not think the Seahawks are not going to give up many points. Consider teams like Seattle off close home win by three points or less, in first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with six or more wins in last eight games, are 25-6 UNDER.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (281) SAN FRANCISCO at (282) CAROLINA 1:00 ET  FOX

Several factors why San Francisco is up from +11.5 to +13. It starts with situational aspect, 49ers played late Monday night, have a short week and has 10:00 am body clock start  after flying across the country. Next, though the Niners played really well in Rams shutout, the Carolina offense is only say, 1000% times more diverse than L.A. offense. Factor in talent difference in squads, the number adds up. Update- Panthers have been pushed a little higher to -13.5 and it has to be sharp action pushing this became bets placed is close to even.

Betting Trend – 52% backing San Francisco

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Carolina

NFL – (281) INDIANAPOLIS at (282) DENVER 4:25 ET  CBS

The Colts secondary is a complete mess due to injury. They were riddled by Detroit, who does not even have Megatron anymore. Trevor Siemian should be able to deal at home in just his second start and it is a given Andrew Luck will play well against Denver because he always does. The total has been bumped from 44 to 46 and we agree. Update- Sixty percent of books at 46.5 and another 30 percent at 47, yet oddly the rest at 45. No matter, one sided betting action by public.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (283) ATLANTA at (284) OAKLAND  4:25 ET  CBS

If you watched either pass defense of these two clubs, you did not come away impressed from what you witnessed. That was the general consensus and oddsmakers have been forced to raise the total from 47 to 49.5 in this nonconference clash. Teams like Atlanta off a loss by seven or fewer points playing out of conference are 29-5 OVER. Update- After early surge, this has been walked back 48 or 48.5, depending on the sportsbook. Still see this going past 50 points.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (287) GREEN BAY at (288) MINNESOTA  8:30 ET  NBC *New*

For the Vikings opener in new building, the total has drifted from 44 to 43 points. The Minnesota defense can limit Green Bay offense and Sam Bradford probably barely knows all the names of the guys in his huddle. With the Packers 8-1 UNDER coming off a road game and the Vikes 16-5 UNDER at home the first two weeks of the season, have to agree.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 185-163-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 142-114-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 332-298-3


Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (1-2 record) – Packers, Jaguars and Seahawks

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (2-1 record) – Colts/Broncos OVER, Titans/Lions OVER, Saints/Giants OVER


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