NFL Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 10


After a quite a start we have seen on line moves, as the weekend approached all kinds of volatility. We have everything covered and more. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (345-270 of late and recent 128-96 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

NFL – (251) HOUSTON at (252) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET  CBS  *New*
Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

Have to admit, seriously thought about Jacksonville early in the week when they were +1.5 underdogs with Houston 0-3 SU and ATS on the road and scoring an unimaginable 7.3 PPG away. However, on Thursday night, the Jaguars got flipped to -2 favorites where they have stayed. Not sure I can support this with Jacksonville with four straight in this series losses and home teams when the line is +3 to -3, a slow starting team, outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 17-46 ATS.

Betting Trend –  75% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston

NFL – (255) DENVER at (256) NEW ORLEANS 1:00 ET  CBS  *New side*

With the average total score of a Saints home game this season 67.5 points, it is little wonder the total jumped from 47 to 49, even against Denver defense. The Broncos pride was wounded in loss to Oakland, with defense having bad game and they will do everything possible to slow Drew Brees. Would not be surprised at all if this is contest is more like recent Seahawks and Saints contest. Update – The total has stayed locked in, but the Saints have jumped from -1.5 to -3.  We are on board.

Betting Trend –  55% backing Over and 56% on Denver

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under and New Orleans covers

NFL – (257) LOS ANGELES at (258) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET  FOX  *New side*

With either Ryan Fitzpatrick wearing a cumbersome knee brace or Bryce Petty making his first start, the Jets are not expected to score many points and it is given Los Angeles will not and the total has moved accordingly from 42 to 40. Both teams have great talent in their front four’s to control any game and the Rams are 8-1 UNDER away when the total is between 35.5 and 42 pointsUpdate – For the most part, 40 has held up, but the Jets are slowing down on entry from -2.5 to -1.

Betting Trend –  62% backing Under and 63% on Jets

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans on Under and Jets

NFL – (263) GREEN BAY at (264) TENNESSEE 4:25 ET  CBS

With Green Bay having allowed 30 or more points in three of past four games and Tennessee permitting 31.2 PPG the last month, no wonder the total has gone up from 48 to 49.5. Both defenses are clearly beatable and the offenses are capable of putting up points. With the Packers 23-9 OVER away off a home loss, like this move. Update – About a 50-50 split on 49.5 and 50 for total, which we are board with,

Betting Trend –  75% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (251) CHICAGO at (252) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET  FOX  *New*

This contest opened as a Pick, but someone believes that after Jay Cutler dressed as a winning quarterback in the upset of Minnesota on Halloween, Chicago can win this time on the road and shifted the Bears to -2.5. Understandable with Tampa Bay 0-4 SU and ATS at home this season and 5-15 ATS of late, but let’s not lose sight of Chicago at 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in 2016. With two pretty equal teams, time to take the points.

Betting Trend –  58% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tampa Bay

NFL –  (271) DALLAS at (272) PITTSBURGH 4:25 ET  FOX

Those betting NFL football are thinking the same as us, Pittsburgh at -3 against one of the best in the league is too high and the Steelers are down to -2 against Dallas. Maybe Pittsburgh circles the wagons again and betters’ 15-2 ATS home record off an upset loss to a division rival, nevertheless, the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS on the road after two or more consecutive wins. Update – A modest buyback to 2.5 and if Pitt goes to three, we are on board.

Betting Trend –  64% backing Dallas

Doug’s VPID Take – Dallas covers

NFL – Monday(275) CINCINNATI at (276) N.Y. GIANTS 8:30 ET  ESPN  *New*

Does Cincinnati have more talent than the Giants, probably, yet to take the Bengals from +2.5 to -1, that makes for Maalox moment. One can make a case both ways with Cincy is 0-4 ATS away from home and the G-Men are 3-1 SU at home. New York is weird team and right now they are 3-0 SU and ATS of late and that works for me.

Betting Trend –  55% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York


Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (12-15 record) – Falcons, Packers and Patriots

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (18-9 record) – Bengals/Giants OVER, Dolphins/Chargers OVER and Texans/Jaguars OVER


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