NFL Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept. 25th


As far as bigger NFL line moves for Week 3, only a couple and not all than large. Besides these we have all the updates from earlier in the week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (248-195 of late and recent 32-21 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

NFL – (463) OAKLAND at (464) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET  CBS

Tennessee has shown improvement to date, while Oakland looks like the same old Raiders, making one mistake after another. This has help push the Titans from a Pick to -1.5. Still, Tennessee is a work in progress and this is just the kind of game Oakland would play well in and they are 6-0 as road underdogs since last season. Update – The Raiders are no longer underdogs, listed at 80 percent of the books check at -1, with the rest at Pick. Expect this to be mostly a Pick game at kickoff with Oakland winning.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Oakland

Doug’s VPID Take – Oakland covers

NFL – (465) ARIZONA at (466) BUFFALO 1:00 ET  FOX  *New*

Arizona opened at -5 and by Friday had sunk to -3.5 at several sportsbook but was about a 50-50 split by Saturday night at either -3.5 or -4. While Rex Ryan was talking crazy stuff, he’s evidently convinced someone the Bills can come up with big effort, but not seeing it with Buffalo 0-7 ATS off a SU favorite loss with opposing team off a 10+ point victory.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona covers

NFL – (471) WASHINGTON at (472) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET  FOX		With neither of these NFC East rivals showing much on offense, those betting football did not like the opening total of 47.5 and sportsbooks have since dropped it two points to 45.5. This has mostly been a lower scoring series of late with the UNDER 7-2 in last nine. However, whenever you see a total fall, best to look at the teams turnover margins and both are negative, which makes pick more problematic. Update – Beginning to see evidence of the total going back up with public books at 46 or 46.5. The rest remain at 45.5 and if the last number is the benchmark, prefer the higher score.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NFL – (473) DETROIT at (474) GREEN BAY 1:00 ET  FOX  *New*

The Packers have been sent packing from -8.5 to -7 against Detroit. This is not as crazy as it sounds with five of Green Bay top 15 defense players expected out, including Clay Mathews. Also, the Packers passing game is not the same with Aaron Rodgers now at 11 consecutive contests without reaching 300 yards. Nevertheless, the Lions are 1-24 and 6-17-2 in the land of Cheeseheads and the Pack is a sharp 20-11-1 ATS off a SU loss.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Green Bay

Doug’s VPID Take – Green Bay covers

NFL – (477) SAN FRANCISCO at (478) SEATTLE 4:05 ET  FOX

The total dipping from 42.5 to 40 is not catching anyone off guard. Seattle offense has been horrific and the defense is doing what they do. Despite the obvious, San Francisco has scored 55 points in two games and appears to be better offensively and even with Russell Wilson dinged, the Niners are 14-3 OVER away after allowing 450+ yards in last game. Update – The low total has come back up by the weekend, sitting at 41 everywhere and we like it.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (479) LOS ANGELES at (480) TAMPA BAY 4:05 ET  FOX

Los Angeles might have won against Seattle and Tampa Bay got ripped in Arizona, but the wagering public is not buying the Buccaneers at -3.5 in home opener and shoved them to -5. The Rams have yet to find the end zone and as long as Tampa Bay does not turn the ball over, they will score. The Rams are 0-6 ATS after a win by six or less points. Update – Tampa Bay was as high at -5.5 on Thursday and has slowly come back to either -4.5 or -5. The real question is can Los Angeles break double digits and score a touchdown.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Tampa Bay

Doug’s VPID Take – Tampa Bay covers

 NFL – (483) N.Y. JETS at (484) KANSAS CITY 4:25 ET CBS

Takeaway the 30-point second half against San Diego in Game 1 and Kansas City has five field goals and no touchdowns this season. The Chiefs better have the passing game in order because nobody is running the effectively on the Jets. Football bettors are largely unconvinced the Kansas City or Gang Green will find the end zone enough and lowered the total from 44 to 42.5. New York comes in 17-5 UNDER after allowing seven or more yards a play in their previous contest. Update – Just under half the wagering outlets reviewed are at 42, with the balance still at 42.5. Look for at least 44 points. Strangely enough, the bet percentage never changed.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NFL – (485) SAN DIEGO at (486) INDIANAPOLIS 4:25 ET  CBS

In the this AFC affair, the thinking is their will be shortage of defense, which has led to the total rising from 50.5 to 52. Both teams feature veteran quarterbacks and mediocre defenses. Yet, oddly enough San Diego is 13-1 UNDER after scoring 30 or points in previous outing. Update – The betting trend and the total both came back, with the total now at 51. Let’s agree with the later bettors.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (1-5 record) – Steelers, Raiders and Dolphins

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (3-3 record) – Rams/Bucs UNDER, Steelers/Eagles OVER and Cards/Bills OVER


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