Let’s dive into the NFL line moves for Week 16 and there is a whole bunch of totals to look at. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (413-326 of late and now on 21-6 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – Thursday – (301) LOS ANGELES at (302) SEATTLE 8:25 ET NBC
Los Angeles surrendered 42 points to Atlanta, but only allowed 286 yards to the Falcons, who has two defensive scores and took advantage of five turnovers. With this in mind and how these NFC West rivals usually play, the total has headed south from 40.5 to 38 points. What the new Rams interim coach can do to shake up the offense is a guess and you know the Seattle defense was humbled at Green Bay. L.A. is 7-0 UNDER off a loss by 21 or more.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Over
NFL – Saturday – (303) MIAMI at (304) N.Y. JETS 8:25 ET NFLN
The quarterback matchup of Matt Moore and Bryce Drew is drawing attention. It is not very positive either, with the total down from 41 to 38 points. It is very easy to agree with this line of thinking and we do, the only problem now is all the value has been taken away from supporting a lower score, even if the Dolphins are 14-4 UNDER in road games off three or more consecutive Over’s.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
NFL – (307) DETROIT at (308) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX
With the Giants defense coming off awesome performance and permitting just 18.8 PPG and Detroit coming up big on defense all season in conceding 20.6 PPG, the total has tumbled from 44 to 41 points. The New York offense is part of the lower total, coming in a paltry 19.6 PPG. There are concerns also about Matthew Stafford having to wear glove with bad finger on throwing hand, which likely will affect accuracy and velocity. Both teams have strong UNDER tendencies.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Under
NFL – (311) GREEN BAY at (312) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX ESPN (side and total)
With Green Bay 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS at Soldier Field in the last 23 years (includes playoffs) and having the better team again this year, the Packers shot up from -5 to -6.5. Also, with both these bitter rivals playing better defense in recent games, the total has slipped from 44. to 42.5. Green Bay would appear to be the play on 3-0 SU and ATS run, but Chicago is playing their best football and is on 4-0 ATS move presently.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Green Bay and 82% on Under
NFL – (313) INDIANAPOLIS at (314) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS
In this nonconfernce clash, the total has gone up from 44 to 45.5. This is really thought provoking because the Colts average 54.6 total points on the road and Minnesota is at 39.9 PPG in the land of 10,000 lakes that are freezing up. Are bettors saying Indianapolis will dictate the tempo or do they feel the Colts defense is so beatable even the Vikings will put up some points? Minnesota is 15-4 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Over
NFL – (315) CLEVELAND at (316) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
In terms of great quarterback play, there is a very good chance this game film will not end up in the Hall of Fame with Robert Griffin lll (remember RG3) going against Tyrod Taylor. Those betting football agree and the total has collapsed three points to 41. One aspect to consider is Cleveland on occasion can run the ball pretty well and Buffalo’s run defense has been porous of late and the Browns defense is just plain rotten. No easy call here.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Under
NFL – (319) JACKSONVILLE at (320) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
Houston took major step towards winning second straight AFC South crown with win at Indianapolis and has to win next two home games before trip to Tennessee. Football bettors are forecasting lower score and dumped the total from 41 to 38.5. This makes perfect sense, the only issue is Jacksonville turnovers that can be quickly converted to points. The Jags are 10-2 OVER after playing at home.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
NFL – (327) OAKLAND at (328) SAN DIEGO 4:25 ET FOX
The total is dipping in the AFC West showdown. After opening at 51, the new number is 49.5. At least by the numbers this holds up and here is why. Since 2007, only twice has what was the first game’s result was not been the opposite in the second contest. (Oddly, in 2008, both outcomes on the total were a Push.) With early contest an easy OVER, going with history could pan out.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 294-286-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 185-154-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 508-463-5