NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 5


Holy cow, three major line moves that came on Saturday! We have those plus what updates from games we had earlier in the week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (275-215 of late and recent 61-41 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back Tuesday.

NFL – (453) TENNESSEE at (454) MIAMI 1:00 ET  CBS

Two AFC offenses scuffling to score points, both checking in at under 18 PPG. With each averaging two or more turnovers, that is the lead reason the total is dipped from 44 to 43. I cannot make a case like last week for Tennessee to go Over, knowing these squads are 7-1 UNDER in south Florida and Miami is 8-1 UNDER versus defenses allowing 5.65 or more YPP. Update – This total briefly went up to 43.5 Friday, but settled back to 43 the next day.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (459) WASHINGTON at (460) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET  FOX

Baltimore scored 27 points against Oakland, but the last 14 were of fluky variety. Though Washington is averaging respectable 24.7 PPG, the Ravens defense, especially at home, has the skill to keep them under that number and in turn the total has crumbled from 47 to 44.5. With the Redskins lousy tackling and being 13-2 OVER off one or move covers, we will go against the grain. Update – A definite buyback on the total, now at either 46 or 46.5. Not as crazy about readjusted number, but will support it. By the way, see the betting trend it had the same number on Under on Wednesday.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NFL – (461) PHILADELPHIA at (462) DETROIT 1:00 ET  FOX  *New*

AP Photo/Michael Perez

As expected, the money is flowing towards Philadelphia, and why not, three impressive wins and coming off a bye week. Detroit on the other hand has lost three in a row and the Lions only win over Indy looks very hallow now. Philly opened at -2 and is either -3.5 or -4 by Saturday night. But this is the NFL, where every week is a new week and favorites like the Eagles after scoring 27 or more points a game, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight contests, are 7-31 ATS the next time out.

Betting Trend – 77% backing Philadelphia

Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit covers

NFL – (463) ATLANTA at (464) DENVER 4:05 ET  FOX  *New*

Denver was already trending downward for -6 to -5 and on Saturday afternoon it was announced Paxton Lynch was going to start at QB for the Broncos. The sent Atlanta down to +4. With the Falcons averaging 38 PPG, why not take the points? Here is why, the Atlanta is permitting 31 PPG and we know how good this Denver defense is and Lynch figures to play better being at home.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Denver

Doug’s VPID Take – Denver covers

NFL – (465) BUFFALO at (465) LOS ANGELES 4:25 ET  CBS  *New*

Cannot say I am shocked Los Angeles has gone from -2 to a Pick or +1 against Buffalo. Why? The Rams are one of the worst offenses in the NFL and it does not figure to get well against Buffalo’s blitzing schemes. L.A. has been out-statted in each contest and teams like Los Angeles off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six points or more are 6-25 ATS the next contest.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Buffalo

Doug’s VPID Take – Buffalo covers

NFL – (469) SAN DIEGO at (470) OAKLAND 4:25 ET  CBS

Given these are two of the weaker defenses in the NFL, seeing the total plummet from 52.5 to 50 was alarming. When doing more research, we discovered San Diego is 10-1 UNDER after scoring 30 points or more and Oakland is 9-1 UNDER at home after allowing 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games. That is rather convincing argument. Update – Found 51 points across the board with bettors thinking San Diego injuries on defense will be the difference.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (471) CINCINNATI at (472) DALLAS 4:25 ET  CBS

Cincinnati was released as one-point road underdog and by Tuesday morning shifted to one-point favorites. Best guess is football bettors are aware of the Bengals recent road success at 8-1 ATS, but not everyone might be aware Dallas under coach Jason Garrett is 14-29-1 ATS in Jerry’s World. Update – Money keeps pouring in on Cincy, with the Bengals up to -2. No question the Cowboys horrible home record plays a part.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Cincinnati

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati

Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (3-9 record) – Patriots, Eagles and Bengals

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (7-5 record) – Giants/Packers OVER, Pats/Browns OVER and Chargers/Raiders OVER


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