NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Week 11


Normally for line moves we don’t like to talk weather, because that alters totals, but because we have so many, will pass them along and thought or two. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (361-282 of late and recent 144-108 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

NFL – (457) CHICAGO at (458) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET  FOX  *New*		With temperatures falling and the wind supposed to be 15 MPH and gusting to 25, this NFC total has blown from 45.5 to 42.5. With Chicago having few options for pass catchers with Alshon Jeffries suspended, the going lower makes sense anyways. Maybe the winds blowing will make it harder for the Giants to intercept Jay Cutler’s throws.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (459) ARIZONA at (460) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET  FOX  *New* 

This game opened as Pick, but by Thursday, Minnesota began attracting attention and was moved to -2 and later on Friday to -2.5. These are two teams that are in throes of a disappointing seasons, making it hard to make a case either way as neither veteran quarterback is playing well. If this is as even as it appears, might as well grab the points, but shaky choice either way.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona

NFL – (463) BALTIMORE at (464) DALLAS 1:00 ET  CBS

With the total lifted from 43.5 to 45, that would seem to favor red-hot Dallas. The thinking would be Baltimore’s best chance to win and cover is a low-scoring game, with their No.1 ranked defense at least controlling the Cowboys offense. With Dallas 24-11 OVER at home after three or more consecutive wins, that might suggest otherwise. Update – A few books that attract sharper action have gone to 44.5 points, otherwise, 45 has remained solid. Got a feeling this could be lower scoring affair.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (465) PITTSBURGH at (466) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  CBS  *New Total*

One has to take into consideration Pittsburgh’s 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak even against winless Cleveland and they have been lowered from -10 to -8. Though both teams desperately need a victory, the Browns have no running or passing offense to speak of and at least the Steelers can move the ball and score points. At under 10, Pitt might be worth a look. Update – Pittsburgh has remained at -8, but with winds blowing from the northwest at 20 to 30 MPH, the total has catapulted from 49.5 to 44.5. This could mean a lot of running the ball.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Pittsburgh and 86% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans with Pittsburgh and Under

NFL – (467) MIAMI at (468) LOS ANGELES 4:05 ET  FOX

When the news broke that Jared Goff is going to be the Los Angeles starting quarterback, betting markets reacted quickly and the Rams went from -1 or Pick to +1.5 almost immediately. This brings quite a bit more uncertainty into this matchup, since Miami is 28-14 ATS as non-division away underdog, but just 5-5 ATS as a favorite in same role. Update – Most sportsbooks known for taking mostly public action have Miami at -2. Though it did not happen immediately, once bettors thought more about Goff starting, the total went from 41 to 39.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Miami and 80% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Miami covers and Lean Under

NFL – (469) NEW ENGLAND at (470) SAN FRANCISCO 4:25 ET  CBS  *New* 

Despite the fact this contest features among the best against among the worst, enough bettors are looking at New England as -13.5 road favorite and thinking the value is with the double digit home underdog and the Patriots have been dropped to -12. Not much to like about the game either way IMO, but I’s rather take the points than give them.

Betting Trend – 81% backing New England

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean San Francisco

NFL – (471) PHILADELPHIA at (472) SEATTLE 4:25 ET  CBS

Though both these NFC teams have been scoring and allowing more points recently, the total has gone downward from 46 to 44.5. Defensively, each club has the players who can make stops and pressure the quarterback. Philadelphia will be out to run the ball which can shorten the game, but for some reason Seattle is 18-7 OVER in November and that cannot be ignored. Update – With a 40% chance of light showers (in Seattle, go figure), enough important betting action has moved the total over lower to 43 or 42.5. Not convinced.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NFL –  (473) GREEN BAY at (474) WASHINGTON 8:30 ET  NBC   *New Total*

Plain and simple, Washington is better than Green Bay presently and is deserving of the support to going from -2 to -3. The Packers have several issues in all phases and they have shown no signs of disappearing. The Redskins don’t need to be reminded about playoff loss at home to the Pack, with Green Bay 6-15 ATS away after allowing 400+ total yards. Update – Washington on Friday went to -2.5, but later that day was back to -3 where they have stayed. With basically the same weather at Giants contest expected in Washington, the total is down two points to 49.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Green Bay and 64% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Washington covers and Under


Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (12-18 record) – Patriots, Raiders and Steelers

Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (20-10 record) – Steelers/Browns UNDER, Texans/Raiders OVER and Dolphins/Rams UNDER


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