Once again, a ton of line moves coming into Week 6 of the NFL season. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (286-227 of late and recent 71-53 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back Tuesday.
NFL – (259) JACKSONVILLE at (260) CHICAGO 1:00 ET CBS (*New* Total)
While there is not much to like about either of these teams, there has been enough meaningful money on Chicago to lift the Bears from -1.5 to -2.5. Talent-wise these two are pretty even and Chicago has been a rather lousy home team for awhile, nevertheless, impossible to ignore Jacksonville is 1-12 ATS taking on NFC teams since 2012. Update – Chicago has regressed to even then lower than where they started at -1 by Saturday evening. The total has also come down from 47 to 45.5. Sticking with the Bears to cover and the Jags are 11-2 OVER against the NFC.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Jacksonville and 56% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago covers and Over
NFL – (261) SAN FRANCISCO at (262) BUFFALO 1:00 ET FOX (*New* Side)
In this nonconference clash, the total has dived from 45.5 to 44. I believe with how the Buffalo defense is performing and the quarterback situation in San Francisco, there are doubts about how many points could be tallied. Nevertheless, you have to consider Buffalo is 16-4 OVER at home versus teams averaging 175 or less passing yards per game. Update – The total has seen buyback to 45 and by Thursday, Buffalo was elevated from -7.5 to -9. The higher total makes sense, but that is a big number with the Bills having two division games on tap is shaky unless they force turnovers.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over and 57% on San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, slight lean San Francisco
NFL – (265) CLEVELAND at (266) TENNESSEE 1:00 ET FOX (*New* Total)
Cody Kessler is expected back quarterback and Josh McCown might be available for Cleveland, but football bettors are undeterred and have moved the Browns from +6 to +7.5. I’m having a hard time thinking Tennessee should be this large a favorite against the Volunteers, let alone a professional team. Will not ignore the Titans are 2-10 ATS in last 12 outings. Update – Tennessee has been back and worth from -7 to -7.5, but can you trust the Titans to cover this large a spread? The total has slipped two points to 43.5 and it is hard to argue with Cleveland 30-13 UNDER after four or more consecutive losses.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Tennessee and 76% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Cleveland covers and Under
NFL – (267) PHILADELPHIA at (268) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOX (side and total)
Philadelphia’s first loss has not changed the minds of enough bettors and the Eagles were switched from +1.5 to -2.5. Not certain this will hold up all week, but it does speak to what Doug Pederson is doing in Philly as coach, along with rookie QB Carson Wentz. The total has also crumbled from 46 to 44.5, which I’m less sure about. Update – Philly up a tick to -3 with total rock steady.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Philadelphia and 87% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over and Lean Philadelphia
NFL – (269) KANSAS CITY at (270) OAKLAND 4:05 ET CBS (*New* Side)
This is a benchmark game for both these AFC West rivals, which could point what direction they head the rest of the season. Early interest has been on the total, starting at 48 and slipping to 47 or even 46.5. That would seem to dictate bettors prefer Kansas City on the side, with Oakland already 4-1 OVER and having a the NFL’s worst defense. Raiders are 10-2 OVER recently vs. the AFC. Update – The total has gone down again to 46, which seemingly correlates with Kansas City having gone from +1.5 to -1. Coach Reid is 16-6 ATS off a bye and the Chiefs are 16-8 and 17-7 ATS at Oakland.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Over and 63% on Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans on Over and Oakland
NFL – (271) ATLANTA at (272) SEATTLE 4:25 ET FOX *New*
In spite of Atlanta’s prolific offense, the total is down two points from 46.5 to 44. I’m on board because home teams coming off a game where they forced three or more turnovers, against opponent after five consecutive games where they committed one or less turnovers, are 37-12 UNDER. Put me on board!
Betting Trend – 52% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (275) INDIANAPOLIS at (276) HOUSTON 7:30 ET NBC *New*
For the Sunday, this AFC South showdown has seen total has blossomed from 44 to 46.5. Clearly, nobody is trusting either defense. My first instinct was too think opposite, but the Colts are 9-1 OVER in road games in the first half of the season since 2014 and the Texans are on a 6-0 OVER in October.
Betting Trend – 89% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (4-11 record) – Patriots, Chiefs and Panthers
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (8-7 record) – Panthers/Saints OVER, Colts/Texanss OVER and Jets/Cardinals OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 224-198-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 153-121-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 383-340-3