NFL Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Nov. 6


Let’s move ahead to the mid-point of the NFL season and investigate the latest line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (327-261 of late and recent 112-87 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

NFL – (451) JACKSONVILLE at (452) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET  CBS  *New* (side and total)

Though it was the offensive coach who was fired by Jacksonville, the Jaguars defense is permitting 28 PPG. With Alex Smith out for the Chiefs, the total has come down from 45.5 to 44 and K.C. has dipped a point to -7.5. I can see the total possibly being correct, but Nick Foles looked very comfortable in offense which featured a running game and play-action passing last week and underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Jags, after allowing 30 points or more in two straight games, against opponent scoring 17 points or more in the first half of consecutive contests, are 5-23 ATS.

Betting Trend –  55% backing Kansas City and 57% on the Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans with Kansas City and Under

NFL – (457) DALLAS at (458) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  FOX

With Cleveland allowing 29.7 PPG, how are they going to slow Dallas offense which is averaging close to that same score (28.4) in their five games? That is what others are wondering also and the total has climbed from 46.5 to 48. Though the adjustment seems right, the Cowboys are 9-2 UNDER on the road the last two years. Update – The total has kept climbing to 49, but not Dallas is totally focused offensively and will go the other way.

Betting Trend –  85% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (459) N.Y. JETS at (460) MIAMI 1:00 ET  CBS		With both teams scoring less than 21 points a contest, one can make the case for a lower score and the total has slipped from 45 to 44. Yet, a closer look at the numbers finds Miami averaging 26.2 PPG at home, while New York has given up 28.4 PPG in five road assignments.  Time to go against the grain. Update – Total has not budged all week, but I see a higher scoring game based on numbers mentioned.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (463) NEW ORLEANS at (464) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET  FOX  *New*

Since shutting out Los Angeles in opening game, San Francisco has allowed 36.5 PPG. Drew Brees and New Orleans usually does not score as much outside, but they should pile up the points the 49ers defense. Next we look at the Saints defense, which has not exactly been stout in permitting 30.7 PPG and football bettors have shoved this total from 51 to 53 as the week went on. Despite the obvious, the Niners are  9-2 UNDER as a home underdog the last two seasons and could see that occurring.

Betting Trend –  70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (465) CAROLINA at (466) LOS ANGELES 4:05 ET  FOX

With Los Angeles scoring just only 17.1 PPG and Carolina defense finally at least resembling last year’s tea, the total has sunk from 46 to 44.5. Not sure I’m on board with this move, but will not argue that when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and an average team like Carolina (+/- 3 PPG differential), goes again against weaker team like the Rams(-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game, the UNDER is 44-15. Update – No movement on this total all week and this looks very much like the right call.

Betting Trend –  77% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (467) INDIANAPOLIS at (468) GREEN BAY 4:25 ET  CBS

In this nonconference clash, we have two quarterbacks who can spin the ball and two secondary’s who are thinner than a walkway model in Paris. Unless either team finds a pass rush that can put the pressure on all day long, the total going from 52.5 to 54 makes sense. Indianapolis is 6-0 OVER away after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. Update – Bettors have pushed this a little higher to 54.5, but unless both teams find a tremendous pass rush and all the injured players in the secondary for both teams are miraculously healthy, has to follow the herd.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NFL –  (469) TENNESSEE at (470) SAN DIEGO 4:25 ET  CBS

With San Diego’s offense sporting 6-2 OVER record, the total dropping from 48.5 to 47 might be puzzling. This is particularly true with Tennessee also 6-2 OVER. Maybe the defenses rise to the occasion, but that seems unlikely and instead we will consider current form for both AFC clubs and follow that direction. Update – We have seen a small buyback with the total up to 47.5 and I’m inclined to agree with a system of mine that 48-17 OVER in this price range with average teams.

Betting Trend –  94% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over


Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (11-13 record) – Chargers, Broncos and Steelers


Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (15-9 record) – Titans/Chargers OVER, Eagles/Giants OVER and Jets/Dolphins OVER


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