NFL Early Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Picks for Nov.16th


The NFL numbers have been worked over for a few days and we have seven line moves to discuss, along with latest betting trends. We also have NBA bonus information and free picks on a key game. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (356-279 of late and recent 139-105 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NFL – Thursday (309) NEW ORLEANS at (310) CAROLINA 8:25 ET  NBC (side and total)

For this NFC South matchup, the total has sunk from 53.5 to 52, with both defense playing better in recent weeks and the offense not producing at previous rates. Nevertheless, the lower total makes one consider New Orleans at 8-0 OVER against losing teams and Carolina at 9-0 OVER versus opponents with seven or more yards per pass attempt. The Panthers were released as -4 home faves and by Monday evening were down to -3, with bettors no longer trusting them.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Carolina and 74% on Over

NFL – (463) BALTIMORE at (464) DALLAS 1:00 ET  CBS

With the total lifted from 43.5 to 45, that would seem to favor red-hot Dallas. The thinking would be Baltimore’s best chance to win and cover is a low-scoring game, with their No.1 ranked defense at least controlling the Cowboys offense. With Dallas 24-11 OVER at home after three or more consecutive wins, that might suggest otherwise.

Betting Trend – 97% backing Over

NFL – (465) PITTSBURGH at (466) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  CBS

One has to take into consideration Pittsburgh’s 0-4 SU and ATS losing streak even against winless Cleveland and they have been lowered from -10 to -8. Though both teams desperately need a victory, the Browns have no running or passing offense to speak of and at least the Steelers can move the ball and score points. At under 10, Pitt might be worth a look.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Pittsburgh

NFL – (467) MIAMI at (468) LOS ANGELES 4:05 ET  FOX

When the news broke that Jared Goff is going to be the Los Angeles starting quarterback, betting markets reacted quickly and the Rams went from -1 or Pick to +1.5 almost immediately. This brings quite a bit more uncertainty into this matchup, since Miami is 28-14 ATS as non-division away underdog, but just 5-5 ATS as a favorite in same role.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Miami

NFL – (471) PHILADELPHIA at (472) SEATTLE 4:25 ET  CBS

Though both these NFC teams have been scoring and allowing more points recently, the total has gone downward from 46 to 44.5. Defensively, each club has the players who can make stops and pressure the quarterback. Philadelphia will be out to run the ball which can shorten the game, but for some reason Seattle is 18-7 OVER in November and that cannot be ignored.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Over

NFL –  (473) GREEN BAY at (374) WASHINGTON 8:30 ET  NBC

Plain and simple, Washington is better than Green Bay presently and is deserving of the support to going from -2 to -3. The Packers have several issues in all phases and they have shown no signs of disappearing. The Redskins don’t need to be reminded about playoff loss at home to the Pack, with Green Bay 6-15 ATS away after allowing 400+ total yards.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Green Bay

NBA – (513) GOLDEN STATE at (514) TORONTO 8:05 ET  ESPN (side and total)
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Heavy action on this televised tilt, with Golden State up from -3 to -5.5 and the total also up, 219 to 222. This movement is direct reflection to scheduling, with Toronto having played at Cleveland last night and the Warriors opening four-game road trip after last playing Sunday. Expect the Raptors to use that as motivation, figuring the NBA gave them really raw deal, (who could argue) and Golden State being 1-9 ATS in road games after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games the last two seasons. Total might have gone just a touch too high.

Betting Trend – 86% backing Golden State and 95% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Toronto and Under


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 265-250-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 167-142-2

Line Movement Direction Record – 444-407-4


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