Need to Know Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Picks for Oct.19-20


For the next two days and looking at Week 7 in the NFL, we have all the line moves completely covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (297-239 of late and recent 82-64 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.

MLB – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) L.A. DODGERS 8:05 ET   FS1  (side and total)

The Chicago Cubs are in big trouble. The fans know and even if the players will not acknowledge publicly, they understand the lack of offense is killing them. This is why they have been pushed from -120 to basically a Pick and the total is down from 7.5 to 7. Like any veteran baseball viewer, we have seen this before and it is hard to get out of in a series.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Chicago and 91% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Los Angeles and Under

NFL – Thursday(301) CHICAGO at (302) GREEN BAY  8:25 ET  CBS  (side and total)

With Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay struggling on offense, the Packers have slid from -9 to -7.5. The total also dipped, starting at 47, down to 45.5 by Tuesday, before rebounding back to 46. Hard to back the Pack even at home and they are likely without top three cornerbacks. With the Bears Brian Hoyer leading his team to field goals and not touchdowns, the total looks ideal.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Under and 64% on Green Bay

Doug’s VPID Take Play Under, Lean Chicago

CFB –Thursday(303) MIAMI-FL at (304) VIRGINIA TECH 7:00 ET ESPN

The ACC Coastal Division is wide open and games like they are going to help pare down who the real contenders are. Early football bettors believe Virginia Tech is the team of choice,  raising them from -4 to -5.5 or -6, depending on the sportsbook. Miami can cover this number, but has to restore passion, which was missing last week. Update – At last look, this was still at -6 across the board. No easy selection, but I am not sure Canes QB Brad Kaaya is 100 percent healthy and with this being on the road, I will lean with Hokies.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Miami-Fl.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Virginia Tech

CFB –Thursday (305) TROY at (306) SOUTH ALABAMA 7:30 ET ESPNU

This Sun Belt showdown has a sinking total, down three points to 48. There is no key area that specifies why this would be, other than both clubs are 4-2 UNDER. However, did find this: When the total is between 42.5 and 49 and the road team just allowed 75 or less rushing yards in last game, against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game, the UNDER is 57-23.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – (455) NEW ORLEANS at (456) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET  FOX

With how the New Orleans offense and defense is playing, little wonder the total jumped from 49 to 50.5. In spite of this, I’ll go the other way, as the Saints offense for years is never as potent outdoors and this season scored 13 points at the Giants and were sitting at 21 at San Diego late in fourth quarter before two gift turnovers helped them reach 35. Expect Kansas City to control tempo.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Under

NFL – (457) WASHINGTON at (458) DETROIT 1:00 ET  FOX

The history of this NFC contest suggests a lower score with the UNDER 8-2 and sportsbooks adjusted number lines down with that thinking, with the total dropped from 51 to 49. Yet, the two teams are a combined 9-3 OVER, with Washington 10-2 OVER off an upset victory and Detroit 8-0 OVER versus conference rivals the last couple years. Put me down for the other side.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Over

NFL – (461) BUFFALO at (462) MIAMI 1:00 ET  CBS

In this AFC East encounter, we have seen an erosion on the total, down from 45.5 to 44. In reviewing the team trends it would seem this totals outcome will be determined by who controls the action. If Buffalo plays there game, we should see an OVER, if Miami plays at their pace, the UNDER is likely outcome.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Over

NFL – (469) SAN DIEGO at (470) ATLANTA 4:05 ET  FOX

With two smoldering offenses and two defenses which do give up points, nobody is surprised to see the total rise from 51.5 to 53.5. The logic is in place, yet I beg to differ. With Atlanta not finishing off Seattle, they are 8-1 UNDER off a road loss. Also, the Falcons are 13-3 UNDER when facing teams with a losing record.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

NFL – Monday(477) HOUSTON at (478) DENVER 8:30 ET  ESPN

Coming off a pair of losses, many are presuming the Denver will be spitting bullets and be extremely fired up for Houston and shoved the Broncos from -6 to -7.5. Denver will also have shot at former QB Brock Osweiler, who led outstanding comeback win over Indianapolis. Concerns for the Texans are 1-7 ATS on Monday’s and scoring 6.5 PPG on the road.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Denver


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 229-212-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 154-125-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 393-354-3


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