Need to Know Line Moves and Free Picks for September 8


It is the first exciting game in the NFL and we have the latest line moves on what is going on, plus, three other contests on the diamond. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (214-172 of late), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NFL – (451) CAROLINA at (452) DENVER 8:30 ET  NBC (side and total)		Denver was sent out as -1 point home favorite but once Mark Sanchez was signed by the Broncos, almost immediately they went to +3 and total shrunk from 43.5 to 41.5. Tells you what bettors think of Sanchez after Trevor Siemian beat him out and line did not change. Total could go either way but huge quarterback differential. Update – Carolina has held steady at -3, but half the sportsbooks checked have gone even lower to 41. Like the side, not the total

Betting Trend – 76% backing Carolina and 59% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Carolina covers, slight lean Under


Tonight’s Philadelphia starting pitcher Alec Asher had a 9.31 ERA last season and served an 80-game suspension this year after a drug suspension, which concluded four days ago. In spite of these negative aspects, the Phillies are giving the 24-year old a chance. Baseball bettors quickly jumped on the total, sending it from 8.5 to 9, figuring Washington will get some good cuts. Going to follow along with the Nationals scoring 20 runs in last three games and they are 20-10 OVER as a favorite of -200 or more this season.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over


Dan Straily (11-7, 3.83 ERA) will start for Cincinnati and Pittsburgh counters with Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.34). Straily is making his career-high 28th start and has started to show the effects, either being sharp or completely off his game. Though both offenses have been in the doldrums in their last seven outings, the total has been bumped from 8 to 8.5. Straily’s inconsistencies play a part and the fact the Reds bats come alive when he’s pitched in certain situations, having 11-1 OVER record when the total is 8 or 8.5, averaging 6.3 RPG. Nevertheless, Nova is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his first six starts since Pittsburgh acquired him from the Yankees on Aug. 1. Going against the move figuring both starters will have good games.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

MLB – (907) COLORADO at (908) SAN DIEGO 10:10 ET  RTRM, FSSD

Clayton Richard (1-3, 3.29) has fit in nicely in San Diego with a 1.48 ERA in six appearances (four starts). With him facing rookie Jeff Hoffman (0-2, 6.06), the Padres have been sent from -120 to -130 or higher depending on the sportsbook. San Diego has won 18 of last 25 against the Rockies at Petco Park and Colorado is 17-47 in road games versus a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less homers a start the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 79% backing San Diego

Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego wins


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 180-164-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 141-113-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 313-285-3



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