Need to Know Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept. 22


It is the usual Thursday fare for line moves this time of year with a little baseball and football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (245-194 of late and recent 29-20 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (303) CLEMSON at (304) GEORGIA TECH 7:30 ET  ESPN	This is really intriguing to see the total rising from 56 to 58. The reason for this is Clemson is 3-0 UNDER to this point of the season and Georgia Tech is allowing 11 points per game, albeit against offensively-challenged teams. The Tigers also come in 9-2 UNDER on the road after consecutive SU home wins and in the last three seasons when the total has closed in this exact manner, the UNDER is 15-3.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB – (901) ATLANTA at (902) MIAMI 7:10 ET  FSSE, FSFL

We don’t know yet, but if the Mets miss the playoffs, they will look at being swept by Atlanta at home in the middle of September as a key reason why. The Braves have won five in a row and been lowered 20 cents on the money line to +130 at Miami. If you consider the starting pitchers, honestly, that has very little to do with, my belief is Atlanta is averaging 5.1 runs per game in their last seven, while the Marlins are at 3.3 RPG in same span. See no reason not to take a flyer on a hot club.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Miami

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta


It is probably too little too late, but give Pittsburgh credit for trying. The Pirates have won seven of nine and moved to within three games of the Wild Card chase. Rather fascinating to see the total slide from 9.5 to 9 with Pitt’s Ryam Vogelsong (3-5, 4.87 ERA) sporting a 10.66 ERA in his past three outings. However, either hot or cold Chase Anderson (8-11, 4.47) is going for the Brew Crew and presently he is scalding with a 1.08 ERA in his past trio of starts. With seven of the eight games played at Miller Park UNDER’s, let’s back the move.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB – (913) N.Y. YANKEES at (914) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET  WPIX, SUN

Not sure about you but a Luis Cessa (4-2, 4.44) vs. Blake Snell (5-8, 3.87) matchup is not going to prevent me from watching football tonight. Nevertheless, somebody is paying attention and the total has fallen from 8 to 7.5. my curiosity was at least peeked to learn more and what I found was two pitchers with ERA’s over five in their last three starts, two bullpen with ERA’s over 4.20 in home/road situations and two teams scoring over their season average in runs in their past seven contests. You with me?

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 195-170-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 144-115-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 344-306-3


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