Need to Know Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept.15th


Today’s line moves bring us NFL and MLB action and we have the lowdown on both.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (230-182 of late and recent 16-9 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow for college football updates.

NFL – (101) N.Y. JETS at (102) BUFFALO 8:30 ET  CBS	Seemingly, if there is one aspect you can count on from a Rex Ryan coached team is around three bone-headed plays a game and sometimes they effect outcomes. That happened in Bills loss at Baltimore and this uneasiness has Buffalo falling from -2.5 to Push or +1 against rival Jets. Still, the Bills are 5-0 SU and ATS recently. Update – Seeing signs today of a little more Bills support with many books are back to a Pick. The bigger change since Monday has been on the total, which started at 42.5, fell to 40 and is presently sitting at 40.5. I look for both teams to open it up.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Jets and 62% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over (Sorry, no side, key play for VPID members)

MLB – (955) L.A. DODGERS at (956) ARIZONA 9:40 ET  SNLA, FSAZ

Dodgers will look to extend their lead this weekend in the desert. The betting attention is focused on the total, which has been lowered from 9 to 8.5. Rich Hill (12-3, 1.80 ERA) is the sole reason why, as he has a three-game, 19 innings scoreless streak he’s assembled since going back into the rotation. The caveat is Arizona’s Archie Bradley (6-9, 5.10), who is 12-3 OVER against teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. This is really tough call because the Dodgers offense has been cold, while Snakes have scoring runs in bunches. I will go against the line move, thinking L.A. will hit and Hill will be touched for runs.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (957) ST. LOUIS at (958) SAN FRANCISCO 10:15 ET  FSMW, CSN-BA

Huge four-game series for both clubs, with large implications for the Wild Card chase. The series commences with two veteran hurlers, Adam Wainwright (11-8, 4.45) for St. Louis and Johnny Cueto (15-5, 2.90) for San Fran. Baseball bettors realize the Cardinals have been nothing special, but the Giants have been awful, which is why the home team has tumbled from -160 to below -140. After having the best record in the big leagues at the break, Bruce Boche’s club has done an about face and is 20-35 since, the worst mark in baseball. Another hard choice with St. Louis the best road club in the game at 43-28, making them the better value.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Los San Francisco

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis

MLB – (965) N.Y. YANKEES at (966) BOSTON  7:05 ET YES, NESN

This matchup usually is the most wagered game of the day at sportsbooks when these two hookup and that will likely be the case in baseball today. The action we have witnessed has the total sinking from 9 to 8.5, as Masahiro Tanaka (13-4, 3.04) and Eduardo Rodriguez (2-7, 4.70) have been in good form of late. Besides being sharp recently, Tanaka is 9-0 UNDER in road games after he did not walk a batter in last start the past two seasons and Rodriguez is 9-1 UNDER in the second half of this year.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 183-161-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 141-114-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 329-296-3


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