The old Thursday mish mash of line moves which are occurring today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (341-269 of late and recent 124-95 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – (109) CLEVELAND at (110) BALTIMORE 8:25 ET NFLN
Baltimore opened as 10-point favorite and had a modest move yesterday to -9.5, but today, for a brief time the Ravens went all the way down to -7.5, before settling at around -8. The betting public is not wild about Cleveland, just not sold on Baltimore. Some value lost on Browns, yet you have to account for visitor on a 12-2 ATS run in the division battle.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
CFB – (111) NORTH CAROLINA at (112) DUKE 7:30 ET ESPN
Though both these teams have Under tendencies this season, based on the how the sportsbooks set the odds, this ACC action has seen the total pumped up from 56.5 to 59. Though first inclination was to think points and go along with the line moves, once we found Duke is 10-1 UNDER in Durham, changed thought process. Update – This total is like a runaway train, picking up more steam day by day and is all the way up to 66.5. It seems whatever value the OVER had, has been sucked dry.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CFB – (113) UL-LAFAYETTE (114) GEORGIA SOUTHERN 7:30 ET ESPNU
With both teams scuffling, bettors are of the opinion it is wiser to take the points than to give them and Georgia Southern is down three points to -7. The Eagles ground game is not quite the same as the last couple years and the defense is not either. If Georgia Southern threw the pigskin better, they would be the choice, with that being Lafayette’s main weakness. ULL is 17-6 ATS away off a conference game.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Georgia Southern
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UL-Lafayette
CFB – (115) UTAH at (116) ARIZONA STATE 9:30 ET FS1
With the total dipping from 61 to 56, that would seem to mean Utah is also a pretty good choice. With total at this price, that would suggest the Utes running game will control the speed of the game and their defense is strong enough to keep Arizona State out of the end zone more than they are used to. However, with this Senior Night in Tempe and off a bye, my hunch the total has sunk too far and will go the other way.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NBA – (503) CHICAGO at (504) MIAMI 8:00 ET TNT
This nationally televised tilt has gone from a Pick to Miami at -2.5. Chicago did play last night and lost in Atlanta and for the fourth time already has allowed opposing team to shoot over 50%. One problem, the Heat cannot score, averaging 93.6 PPG. Look for D-Wade to want to show Pat Reilly he was worth another contract and the Bulls win.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago covers
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 252-242-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 166-137-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 429-395-3