For line moves today we have Game 2 in the Stanley Cup Finals along with three evening baseball conflicts. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (134-90, 59.8% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
NHL – (3) NASHVILLE at (4) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET NBCSN
In the opening game, both teams have positives they came away with. Nashville for the most part dominated the action and came back from a 3-0 deficit to tie the game. Despite only having only 11 shots on goal before the empty-netter, Pittsburgh scored four times, with three excellent setups where they broke down the Predators defense. The Pens were released as -162 favorites and they have cascaded downward to -147. My belief was Nashville would win once in Pittsburgh and this is their chance.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Nashville
Doug’s VPID Take – Nashville wins
MLB – (961) WASHINGTON at (962) SAN FRANCISCO 10:10 ET MASN2, KNTV
Washington moving from -175 to -190 or higher favorite comes with no surprise considering the starting pitchers. We have Max Scherzer (5-3, 2.77 ERA) going up against Matt Cain (3-3, 4.45). In fairness, the much maligned Cain has been excellent at home with a 1.26 ERA and 3-1 record and he’s working on 10 scoreless innings against the Nationals from last season. Nevertheless, NL favorites with a money line of -150 or more, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less homers a start, are 224-77 since 2013.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins
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MLB – (973) DETROIT at (974) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET FSD, FSKC
It has been a May to forget for tonight’s starting pitchers Matt Boyd (2-5, 5.40) and Ian Kennedy (0-4, 4.43). The Tigers Boyd is 0-4 with a 6.92 ERA this month, allowing 21 runs on 42 hits and 10 walks in just 26 innings. The Royals Kennedy is 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA, while allowing five home runs in 11 1/3 innings over three starts, with a stint on the DL tossed in. So why in the name of John Mayberry (Google it) would the total tumble from 9.5 to 9? Bettors see K.C. scoring 3.4 RPG on the season and Detroit at a mere 3.7 RPG in their last seven outings and are leaning towards lower score. With these two hurlers and below average bullpens, I like the OVER.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (979) COLORADO at (980) SEATTLE 10:10 ET RTRM, RTMW
Colorado has fallen out of first place after consecutive home losses to Seattle and will try and turn the tables in coffee-town the next two days. Those betting baseball do not like the Rockies chances and shoved them from +145 to +160. James Paxton (3-0, 1.43) is coming off the DL and evidently is supposed to continue where he left off. While a big fan of the left-hander, Colorado is 10-6 vs. lefties and Rocks starter Antonio Senzatela (7-1, 3.19) has been terrific. Chuck in Colorado is 6-0 in road games after a loss by four runs or more this season, they draw my support.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 119-127-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 72-68-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 187-181-11 ATS