The playoffs in the NBA and NHL are advancing and we have fewer choices for line moves. Nonetheless, we still found some today, plus the biggest in each the National and American Leagues in baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (94-55 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back tomorrow.
NBA – (503) UTAH at (504) GOLDEN STATE 10:35 ET TNT
With this series opener sinking from 208 to 206.5, it would be natural to think Utah was going to be a large part of this equation. While they will certainly have a role in this, keep in mind that Golden State is 18-6 UNDER at home as a #1 seed in the playoffs the last three seasons. No question I prefer the original number, nevertheless, as long as it stays at least at this point, I can go along with the direction of the line movement.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NHL – (53) ST. LOUIS at (54) NASHVILLE 9:35 ET NBCSN
There is the belief that St. Louis is in a bounce back spot here for Game 4 and they have been lowered from +150 to +135 at Nashville. This does make sense in theory, but one of the keys to this series was the Predators ability to dominate the puck and they have outshot the Blues in each game (+17 advantage). Unless St. Louis can find a way to control the black disk for longer periods and generate more quality shots and goalie Jake Allen returns to first round form, like the Preds to take 3-1 series lead.
Betting Trend – 95% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Nashville wins
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MLB – (903) ARIZONA at (904) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET FSAZ, MASN2
Tanner Roark has gotten off to a very strong start for Washington at 3-0 and has a 3.64 ERA. It helps that the Nationals were unreal in April in averaging 6.8 RPG and the last week have been ridiculous in scoring 11 RPG. Despite this, the Nationals have been sliding as favorites from -155 to -131 versus Arizona. The Diamondbacks have been a large surprise after a month at 16-11 (+6.6 units) and Taijuan Walker (3-1, 3.94 ERA) has done the job for his new club. Walker like Roark has seen his team win four of his five starts. With both teams hitting right-handed pitching hard and having lousy bullpen ERA’s, the D-Backs will have a shot, however, like the lower price on the Nats at home.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
MLB – (927) L.A.A. ANGELS at (928) SEATTLE 10:10 ET FSW, RTNW (side and total)
Left-hander James Paxton (3-0, 1.39) has slammed the door on opposing batters which is the driving force for Seattle on the rise from -135 to -150. With the team from Anaheim averaging only 2.8 RPG on the road, the total is also down from 7.5 to 7. Paxton has been Kershaw-like with no runs allowed in four of his five starts, with 39 strikeouts and only six walks. The Mariners are back home after a long trip that did not end well, yet are 12-2 after a defeat by eight or more runs. With the Angels 11-2-1 UNDER in the traveling gray’s, the alterations appear accurate.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Seattle and 82% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Seattle wins, Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 102-110-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 50-52-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 143-160-5 ATS