Need to Know Line Moves and Free Picks for May 17th


It is the first game of the Eastern Finals for NBA Playoffs and we have line moves to cover in that contest along with other baseball games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (114-72, 61.2% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (721) CLEVELAND at (722) BOSTON  8:30 ET  TNT		In this series opener, there are two trains of thought on rest for both teams. One is Cleveland will be fresh and ready to go while Boston just completed grueling seven-game series and will worn out. The other is the Cavaliers will be stale after 10 days and the Celtics are in the groove of playing and will be more ready and are playing at home. We will find out which right, but the betting action is Cavs heavy, with LeBron and the boys up from -3 to -4.5. If the C’s are going to steal a game, this would be it.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Cleveland

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Boston

MLB – (957) CINCINNATI at (958) CHIC. CUBS  8:05 ET  FSOH, WGN

With the wind expected to be blowing out at Wrigley Field, the total opened at 12.5 for this division rivalry. That high figure looked suspicious to even of those betting baseball and the total was lowered to 11.5. Even if the wind is an issue, the Reds Scott Feldman (2-3) has a respectable 3.59 ERA this season and after a laboring start, Kyle Hendricks (2-2, 3.40 ERA) has a 1.52 ERA in his past four starts. No doubt it is hard to ignore Cincinnati is 9-0 OVER after two or more consecutive losses this season, but I will forecast a 6-4, 6-3 final score.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under


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MLB – (965) N.Y. YANKEES at (966) KANSAS CITY  8:15 ET YES, FSKC

After winning six of seven and sweeping Baltimore, Kansas City was giving indications of turning their season around. Last night, at least in the series opener, it looked like the Royals before this spurt in a dull 7-1 loss to New York. With this mind and how the Yankees are playing, K.C. was given extra layers of underdog barbeque sauce and extra-charred from +115 to +130 or higher depending on the sportsbook. Jason Vargas (5-1, 1.01) gives the Royals a chance with how he is throwing, yet impossible to overlook the lefty is 0-5 vs. New York, the Bronx Bombers are 6-2 against left-handers and K.C. batters are averaging 3.2 RPG.

Betting Trend – 50-50 Split

Doug’s VPID TakeLean New York

MLB – (979) BOSTON at (980) ST. LOUIS  8:15 ET  ESPN (side and total)

Boston went from a dog to a favorite last night in St. Louis and won the game thanks to the Cardinals three errors. The same is true thus far with the Red Sox starting at +102 and shifted to -115 favorites. BoSox starter Rick Porcello (2-5, 4.01) has not pitched like the reigning AL Cy Young winner, but does have 2.84 ERA in last three outings, along with 20 strikeouts and no walks. The Cards counter with Mike Leake (4-2, 1.94) who has been terrific, but he and his teammates are only 4-10 at home when he’s started. In addition, the total is on the rise, up from 8 to 8.5 and frankly I cannot explain why.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Boston and 56% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLeans Boston and Under


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 109-119-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 58-62-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 158-176-8 ATS


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