Finally we have line moves in the NBA, along with three other games in baseball, two of which have sides and totals movement. In late afternoon action, Toronto has tumbled from -160 to -140 home favorite over Atlanta. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (111-69, 61.6% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (719) SAN ANTONIO at (720) GOLDEN STATE 9:00 ET ESPN
With Kawhi Leonard not expected to play, basketball bettors are not convinced the oddsmakers total of 211 will hold up and they made enough large wagers to force sportsbooks to lower the number down to 209.5. The fact this is only a two point drop from the Game 1 closing total, so somebody is thinking the a variety of players will be picking up the scoring slack. I will agree, just not as convincingly we will see a lower score.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (911) TAMPA BAY at (912) CLEVELAND 6:10 ET SUN, STO
With Tampa Bay having scored 6.3 RPG in their last seven tries and facing what has been a very mediocre Danny Salazar (2-3, 5.20 ERA), the total has sprung a rare full run from 8 to 9. Before one think this is the new Bitcoin, consider the Rays Jake Odorizzi (2-2, 2.61) is pitching well of late. In his past four starts, he has a 1.42 ERA while holding opposing teams to a .154 batting average. You should also know Salazar has a 2.04 ERA versus the Rays in three starts and Odorizzi is 17-3 UNDER in road night games.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
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MLB – (913) BALTIMORE at (914) DETROIT 7:10 ET MASN2, FSD (side and total)
With Baltimore just swept at Kansas City and riding a four-game losing streak, they have been flipped from -111 favorites to +110 underdogs at Detroit. While I agree the Orioles have played over their heads (+10 run differential), Detroit is not exactly a bastion of stability at 18-18. Though not a fan of Wade Miley (1-1, 2.45), I prefer him and the O’s bullpen over Matt Boyd (2-3, 3.89) and the Tigers pen. The total is also on the move from 9 to 9.5 and Detroit is 12-2 OVER after batting .200 or worse over a three- game span.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over and 83% on Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over and Lean Baltimore
MLB – (927) COLORADO at (928) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET RTRM, FSNO (side and total)
Another interleague switch has Minnesota going from +102 to -115 home fave against Colorado. This is the Rockies first visit to the Twin Cities since 2010 and they will start left-hander Kyle Freeland (3-2, 2.92). Phil Hughes (4-1, 4.74) will go for the Twins who are 8-10 at Target Field, while Colorado is 11-5 in the road gray’s. The total has also been altered from 9 to 9.5 despite Freeland being 7-0 UNDER. However, Minnesota is 24-7 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher and is 9-1 OVER in home interleague skirmishes. I’ll back the Twinkies because of this MLB system: AL home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher, scoring 4.4 to 4.9 RPG, against a NL starter whose ERA is 3.70 or lower, are 44-12 since 2013.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Minnesota and 86% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins and Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 108-118-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 56-60-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 155-173-8 ATS