With just one college basketball game having a modest total move and nothing happening on the ice, for line moves today our full attention is on the NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (42-22-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (501) ATLANTA at (502) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSS, CSP
Despite the fact Atlanta is 1-7 and 2-6 ATS in their past eight games, those betting basketball have influenced the line enough to move the Hawks from a Pick to -2 over Philadelphia. This has everything to do with Atlanta being 9-1 and 8-2 ATS against the Sixers the last three seasons. Nonetheless, before we go all ga-ga about Atlanta, realize the 76ers are on a 21-5 ATS underdog tear.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia
NBA – (505) CHARLOTTE at (506) TORONTO 7:35 ET FSSE, SN1
Yesterday Charlotte was a part of a sinking total and they are again, this time north of the border. The Hornets stunk backers yesterday, easily going Over the total, but are right back to heading lower, down from 205 to 202. Charlotte is scoring and playing no defense, with average total score of past five games at 215 points. The only trepidation I have about not completely jumping in hard on the OVER is Toronto shot 59 percent in last game and those numbers tend to even out. Nevertheless, the Raptors are 10-2 OVER after three or more straight spread winners.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NBA – (509) MILWAUKEE at (510) BOSTON 7:35 ET FSWI, CSNE
In this Eastern Conference encounter, the total is rising like a head of beer poured into a tall glass from 208 to 210.5. What is driving this number, two factors. First, Boston in its past five contests has scored and allowed a total of six more points a contest than season average. Secondly, these clubs have played four straight OVER’s and are 6-1 OVER most recently. I’m leaning towards contrarian thinking, with the Celtics 12-3 UNDER after two or spread losers and Milwaukee having shot 62 percent last evening in Charlotte.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NBA – (511) INDIANA at (512) MEMPHIS 8:05 ET FSIN, FSS
Two floundering teams collide and skeptics are calling for fewer points, lowering the total two points to 195.5. Evidently, Memphis will control the pace, already being 22-13 UNDER at home and coming off being swept in four-game road trip in which they averaged a puny 89 PPG. Indiana does not play with much of an edge these days, particularly on defense, where permit 108 PPG outside the Hoosier State. Not a strong play by any means, but agree where the total is heading and the Grizzlies are 13-4 UNDER after playing three consecutive road games the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 69-85-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 34-40-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 105-124-3 ATS