We have a fresh batch of line moves in the NBA and NHL along with NIT action. If you have been following this awhile, you see the public is having its worst year since I have been doing this beginning in 2009. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (39-21-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (763) MILWAUKEE at (764) CHARLOTTE 7:05 ET FSWI, FSSE
While the consistency is not in place game to game, both Milwaukee and Charlotte have played better defense in their last five outings, holding opponents to a 2-3 points less than they typically allow. Take those numbers and add in the Bucks offense has scored five fewer points per contest in that span and the total has crumbled from 204 to 199 tonight. Though there could be something to this, I cannot get past the facts; Milwaukee is 13-5 OVER after a double digit loss and Charlotte is a perfect 8-0 OVER after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NBA – (765) MIAMI at (766) DETROIT 7:35 ET SUN, FSD
In more NBA action, we have another total that is sinking, this one in the Motor City. The oddsmakers opening salvo of 204.5 has come down to 201. Detroit is in major funk offensively, averaging 93.2 PPG in losing seven of eight and might be without starting point guard Reggie Jackson again, who according to coach Stan Van Gundy is worn down physically and mentally. Miami has lost four of seven as it’s defense has lost its edge, but I am not sure that will matter in the matchup, with the Pistons 11-3 UNDER when playing on consecutive days.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
CBB – (777) CS-BAKERSFIELD vs. (778) GEORGIA TECH 7:00 ET ESPN
In spite what looks like a defensive struggle, the total on this NIT semi-final has jumped from 120 to 123.5. Both teams hold opposing teams to under 40 percent shooting and have been even stronger in March, but CS-Bakersfield offensive prowess has caught the attention of basketball bettors. Only four of the Roadrunners first 29 games had a spread or total listing, but sportsbooks have posted numbers on their past five contests and each has resulted in an OVER. Conversely, Georgia Tech is 7-1 UNDER of late, including the last four in a row. Both teams are capable of scoring off their defense which should lead to higher score, however, if you like the OVER, I would not go buy a higher number.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NHL – (69) N.Y. RANGERS at (70) SAN JOSE 10:35 ET MSG, CSCA
Bad timing by San Jose to be playing poorly. The Sharks have lost six straight and have fallen out of first place in the Pacific Division. In spite of this, San Jose has drawn enough support to be lifted from -120 to -140 or higher on the money line against the New York Rangers. The Blueshirts are not exactly playing well either in losing five of seven, yet as a larger underdog they could offer greater value. Why, because the Rangers are 27-11 SU on the road this season and are 6-0 away having dropped three of four tilts.
Betting Trend – 90% backing San Jose
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 69-84-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 31-40-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 102-123-3 ATS