Need To Know Line Moves and Free Picks for Mar. 5


We have one official big for the Big Dane in the books and couple more come today. On this Sunday we have not only college basketball line moves but those in the NBA. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (6-2 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (823) GOLDEN STATE at (824) NEW YORK 3:35 ET ABC

How the Knickerbockers are ever on television is a mystery, because the current state of this time warrants about seeing them as often as Orlando or Brooklyn. But it is the Big Apple and Golden State is the opposing team, so that warrants some legitimacy. The betting action has focused more on the total, which has dipped from 221 to 218.5. Given the last six meetings have produced a 5-1 UNDER record, but what pushed me over the top is a the Warriors at 8-0 UNDER in road games after five straight contests allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less this season.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under


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NBA – (835) OKLAHOMA CITY at (836) DALLAS  8:35 ET  ESPN

A recent study in contrasts gives way to history in this southwest area showdown. The total is up two points to 206 and Oklahoma City is doing their part to lifting the number at 6-1-2 OVER and some places might have the Thunder with an even better record. Dallas has been the polar opposite at  7-1 UNDER. What is driving number is the location, where the OVER is 9-0-1 or 10-0 OVER in Big D. No matter what the numbers say, you have to consider the trend!

Betting Trend – 90% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

CBB – (835) MINNESOTA at (836) WISCONSIN 6:00 ET  BTN (side and total)
Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

There is a school of thought that in spite of Wisconsin having recent 1-5 SU record and ONE spread cover since January (1-7 ATS), they will provide stronger showing today. Those backers point to the Badgers are playing for No.2 seed in the Big Ten tourney and a setback could have them slip all the way to No.6 depending on other outcomes today and they have been lifted from -6 to -7.5. But what about Minnesota, whose won eight straight and is 7-1 ATS, is factual info not better than a hunch? The total is also on the rise, up two digits to 133.5 and that makes more sense to yours truly.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Minnesota and 88% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota covers, lean Over

CBB – (869) DENVER vs. (870) SOUTH DAKOTA ST. 7:00 ET  ESPN-CE

The first Summit quarterfinal features a total that looks like a sinkhole, down four points to 150. This has been caused by concerns about the Denver offense, which has been held below season norms in three of past five outings, which is why they are on 1-4 SU and ATS slide. South Dakota State’s profile suggests an OVER in allowing 77.7 PPG, yet they have held four of last seven foes in the 60’s. Not a ringing endorsement on this total, but will take a flyer that Denver’s ‘good’ offense shows up and will support a higher figure.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 50-56 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 25-31-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 74-85-1 ATS


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