On Tuesday, we have a who batch of line moves in baseball. Because your author has to attend to some business out of town, the line moves will be back next Tuesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (141-96, 59.5% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here next week.
MLB – (951) ST. LOUIS at (952) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET FSMW, FSOH
Though no runs were charged to the St. Louis bullpen last night, they gave up double that broke a 2-2 tie with Cincinnati scoring two runs which lead to victory. With how Adam Wainwright (6-3, 3.79 ERA)has been pitching, baseball bettors have more confidence in him and elevated the Cardinals from -110 to -130. Wainwright has allowed one run in his past four starts (26 1/3 innings), yet is only 9-10 lifetime against the Reds and with his team losers of nine of 12 and making all sorts of mistakes along the way, I will lean with Cincy.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
MLB – (953) PHILADELPHIA at (954) ATLANTA 7:35 ET CSP, FSSE
Despite heavy sharp action on Atlanta, the betting public has driven the Braves from -135 to -110. Evidently because Philadelphia has won three straight and is hitting the ball, they are attracting attention. Maybe they will solve Jamie Garcia (2-3, 3.18), who has a 0.42 ERA in his last three starts, and you have to consider the fact the Atlanta is dreadful 3-16 off a loss by six runs or more to a division rival. Nevertheless, I will back this system: Home teams revenging four or more losses, off a setback as a divisional favorite, when the money line is +125 to -125, are 31-11 since 2013.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
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Seattle’s James Paxton (4-0, 1.26) missed 29 days being on the DL, but in his first start back, it was like he never left with 5 1/3 scoreless innings. Despite this, the total has still risen from 8 to 8.5. Why you wonder; it starts with the Mariners offense being hot, averaging 7.1 RPG in their last seven outings and Minnesota’s Hector Santiago’s (4-5) ERA has climbed over three runs in his last nine starts to 4.76. I will go along, with the M’s 40-20 OVER against left-handed starters at home.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (977) N.Y. METS at (978) TEXAS 8:05 ET SNY, FSSW
Texas started slow, then won 11 of 12, but has fallen off again in dropping 10 of 12. The Rangers have given up over six runs a game in this brutal stretch and turn to former Mets Dillon Gee to slow New York tonight. The Metropolitans counter with Jacob deGrom (4-2, 3.97) who is coming off one of his worst starts of his career where nothing worked. Bettors are confident he will rebound and taken the Mets from -135 to -150. While New York is hardly a comforting choice, Texas is 6-17 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.
Betting Trend – 69% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 124-128-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 76-71-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 191-187-11 ATS