With the way it was looking, it appeared all the line moves it would be totals, but near the end of the assigned numbers for baseball, we found a money line with significant alteration. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (156-111, 58.4%), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (913) N.Y. METS at (914) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET ESPN
With the New York Mets starting a journeymen in pitcher Tyler Pill (0-2, 3.75 ERA) and the L.A. Dodgers averaging 7 RPG in their last 12 contests, the total has climbed from 8.5 to 9. This could be further supported by the Dodgers Rich Hill (5-5) having a 5.15 ERA. My question is New York is averaging 3.3 RPG on this road trip and Los Angeles has the best bullpen to support Hill in the National League.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (921) TORONTO at (922) TEXAS 8:05 ET RSN, FSSW
Not sure about you but a Joe Biagini (0-6, 4.26) vs. Tyson Ross (1-0, 3.18) matchup sounds like a lot of runs. I am not the only one that thinks this way and the high total of 10.5 has shot to 11. The Texas offense has rung up 35 runs in the past five games and Toronto’s home run based offense has come around. I’m not thrilled about this high of figure and found the Blue Jays are 76-45 UNDER when the total is 11 or higher in the past 20 years.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
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MLB – (923) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (924) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET CSN-C, FSNO
Those betting baseball were aware of the talents of Jose Berrios (6-1, 2.74) for Minnesota and he is coming into his own at just 23. What everyone is not necessary aware of is how effective 25-year old David Holmberg (1-0, 2.63) has been for the Chicago. In 12 appearances (four starts), opposing hitters have just .171 average against the lefty. With this, the total has tumbled from 10 to 9.5. However, the White Sox offense is hot and the Twins is certainly capable, plus the Pale Hose are 18-6 OVER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since last year.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (927) DETROIT at (928) SEATTLE 10:10 ET FSD, RTNW
Seattle’s James Paxton (5-2, 3.23) first start coming off the DL was impressive, but that has not been the case on the next three occasions, with a wayward 9.94 ERA. In spite of this, he and the Mariners have been bumped up from -127 to -145 over Detroit and Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.50 ERA). For those making MLB picks, you have to consider the Tigers are 14-22 on the road and Seattle is 22-13 under their retractable roof. I will lean with the M’s because they are 11-2 at home vs. a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or higher.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 131-139-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 84-75-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 207-198-11 ATS