With the NHL and NBA having crowned champions, baseball takes the full spotlight until the NFL exhibition season starts in August. For today, we have five significant line moves to look over. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (143-98, 59.5% of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) ATLANTA at (922) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET FSSE, MASN
With starting pitchers R.A. Dickey (4-4, 4.73 ERA) and Joe Ross (3-2, 6.16) slated to pitch, based on their ERA’s alone the total rising from 9.5 to 10 makes sense. Add in Washington has the 28th rated bullpen in baseball with an ERA of 5.11 and they blew another save last night in permitting five runs. With Atlanta 20-6 OVER after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more, have to back the line move.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (913) BALTIMORE at (914) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET MASN2, CSN-C
After a 22-10 start, Baltimore is at .500 for the first time this season, with their current losing streak at five. The Orioles were sent out by the sportsbooks at +105, but have been altered to -115 favorites against the White Sox. In trying to surmise why the flip, Sox starter Derek Holland (4-6, 3.99) has been hammered in his last two starts (18.00 ERA). Nevertheless, the Pale Hose are averaging better than 10 hits per game in their last five contests, the Birds Alec Asher (2-4, 4.35) has been far more effective as reliever than starter and the O’s are putrid 10-21 on the road.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
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MLB – (915) SEATTLE at (916) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET RTNW, FSNO (side and total)
For a second straight night, this AL action is about finding the lesser of two evils. With Monday’s 14-3 thrashing of Minnesota, Seattle is 12-20 on the road. The Twins are one of baseball best away from home, but they have the worst home record in the majors at 12-19. Those betting baseball are more comfortable with Minny, switching them from +105 to -115 or higher. I’ll side with Seattle who is 11-3 in road games after allowing four runs or less in four straight contests. With it hot and humid in the Twin Cities and Christian Bergman (3-3, 4.03) facing Kyle Gibson (3-4, 6.52), the total has exploded from 9.5 to 11. With neither starter figuring to last past the sixth inning and the M’s 9th in AL bullpen ERA and the Twinkies last, that is where the higher total is coming from.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Minnesota and 87% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Seattle and lean Over
MLB – (919) N.Y. YANKEES at (920) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET YES, FSW
With the Yankees owing CC Sabathia (7-2, 3.66) 25 million this season at age 36, they were not about to cut him and pay the money for nothing. Having patience and working with the big left-hander has paid off and in his last five starts he is 5-0 with 1.11 ERA by throwing strikes and really changing speeds. Baseball bettors are still skittish and dropped New York from -140 to around -120, with the Angels 10-6 versus lefty’s, though that has been mostly with Mike Trout in the lineup. Maybe Sabathia is rocked tonight, but too much value with the Yankees lineup against the Halos C Ramirez (6-4, 4.33).
Betting Trend – 93% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 125-129-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 77-72-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 193-189-11 ATS