I have to admit, this is one of the most confusing days for line moves in some time. Much of these adjustments make little sense and there is very little to choose from overall. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (197-164) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Friday.
NFLX – (251) HOUSTON at (252) CAROLINA 7:30 ET NFLN
I really wish I had a good reason to explain to you why the total jumped from 36.5 to 38 and Carolina has sunk from -3 to -1. The argument can be made that Tom Savage will play as Houston’s starting quarterback and Cam Newton will not for Carolina and the Panthers have played OVER in five straight preseason openers. That is about it. Honestly, do not like this game at all and have only the slightest of leans.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Houston and 56% on Over
Doug’s VPID – Slight leans on Carolina and Over
MLB – (955) SAN DIEGO at (956) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET FSSD, FSOH
I scoured the inter-web in search of finding why the total in this NL encounter would dip a full run from 10 to 9. The Padres Travis Wood (2-3) has a 6.49 ERA, but does have 2.91 ERA against his original club he played for, with only 11 of his 27 appearances having come as a starter. Asher Wojciechowski (2-1, 4.15 ERA) has posted a 1.02 ERA in last seven outings for Cincy, with just one a start. My numbers point to 10.4 runs being scored, thus, I will stick with that in this confusing line move.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
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MLB – (957) PHILADELPHIA at (958) ATLANTA 7:35 ET CSP, FSSE
In the NL East matchup, we have another falling total, which has gone from 9.5 to 9. I can at least make a case for this happening as both Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.56) and Atlanta’s Sean Newcomb (1-6, 4.61) have pitched better in their three most recent starts. This season the UNDER is 8-4 when these two engage. Again, a real challenge to find a good side and I’ll lean with UNDER with the Braves 11-2 UNDER at home after three consecutive game versus a division rival this season.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (959) L.A. DODGERS at (960) ARIZONA 9:40 ET SNLA, FSAZ
The Dodgers are in a MAJOR slump! With last night’s loss in Arizona they have ONLY won five of their past seven. Baseball bettors are taking notice (rolling my eyes) and have sent Los Angeles from -130 to around -110. This not a line move you can disagree with as Zack Greinke is (13-4, 3.10) is 10-0 at Chase Field (Snakes 11-1) and 66-25 in home games if his club is off a victory. (Team’s Record) However, just remember Alex Wood (12-1, 2.45) is 5-0 on the road in 2017 (Dodgers 5-3) and L.A. have dropped two straight once since June 4-6.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 152-170-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 109-88-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 249-228-13 ATS