I thought the full moon was last night but with all the line moves for today, you would have thought it would this evening! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (195-159) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (911) N.Y. YANKEES at (912) TORONTO 7:07 ET YES, RSN (side and total)
In this AL East encounter, Toronto has blossomed from a -110 favorite to at -125, depending on the sportsbook and the total has sunk from 9.5 to 9. The total I completely agree with CC Sabathia (9-4, 3.81 ERA) 13-4 UNDER versus teams averaging 1.25 or more homers a game and J.A. Happ (4-8, 3.92) 16-5 UNDER in home night games. I’m less inclined to back the Blue Jays with the Yankees the better club and Sabathia and Bronx Bombers 9-2 as a road underdogs of +100 to +150 the last two years.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Toronto and 69% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play New York and Under
MLB – (913) BOSTON at (914) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET NESN, SUN
In the other AL East battle, the total has slipped from 7.5 to 7 and there is almost literally no reason to discount why. Chris Sale (13-4,2.70) is the Boston starting pitcher and since he is coming off his worst start of the season (seven runs allowed in five innings), it is nearly a given he will extra sharp. Despite what seems to be the obvious, Boston is averaging 6.5 RPG in their last eight contests and is 10-1 OVER on the road after an off day. While Sale may be dealing, the Red Sox will be tearing the cover off the ball in this often heated rivalry.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
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MLB – (927) MILWAUKEE at (928) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET FSWI, FSNO (side and total)
It is the final matchup in the Twin Cities before heading east to Milwaukee to complete the series. Minnesota overcame a 4-1 deficit last night to take the opener 5-4 and those betting baseball have moved the Twins from -103 underdogs to -120 favorites this evening. Though no fan of the Brewers Matt Garza (5-5, 3.68), he has a ERA 2.01 in his last five starts and the Twinkies are 3-12 after five or more consecutive home games this season. The total has also been elevated from 9.5 to 10 and while the Brew Crew is not hitting, they are 10-0 OVER vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .400 or lower in the second half of the season since 2015.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Minnesota and 88% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Milwaukee and Over
MLB – (929) ST. LOUIS at (930) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET FS-1 (side and total)
St. Louis bombed Kansas City 11-3 in the I-70 opener and with the Cardinals on a three-game winning streak and the Royals losers of six of eight, the Redbirds have flown from -103 to -120 or higher. The Cards are beginning to hit and starter Michael Wacha (8-4, 3.66) is 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA in his past seven starts (though 5.19 ERA on the road). Jason Vargas (13-5, 3.10) had a 2.22 ERA at the end of June and is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA since. I will lean with K.C. since Vargas has been a strong home-stopper with a 9-1 mark at home if he club is off a defeat. (Team’s record) The total tumbling from 9 to 8.5 is also tricky, nonetheless, I will go along with public sentiment on this one.
Betting Trend – 91% backing St. Louis and 89% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Kansas City and Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 151-169-10 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 105-87-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 243-227-13 ATS