Because of time constraints, our line moves focus is entirely on the Thursday night action in baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (169-132, 56.1% of late, including 19-9 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (957) L.A. DODGERS at (958) COLORADO 8:40 ET SNLA, RTRM
The Dodgers have failed to pick up any ground on San Francisco the last two days despite Giants losses. Those betting baseball think L.A. can avoid being swept and moved them from -125 to -145 with Kenta Maeda (9-7, 3.23 ERA) climbing to the top of the mound. The Dodgers have won seven of Maeda’s 10 road starts. Colorado’s Tyler Chatwood is 6-0 with a 1.30 ERA on the road, but is 4-6 with a 5.69 ERA at Coors Field. Of note, home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, with an on-base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games, against opponent starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing, are 11-48 the last 19 years.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – L.A. Dodgers win
MLB – (965) OAKLAND at (966) L.A.A. ANGELS 7:05 ET CSN-CA, FSW
Late afternoon start could mean shadows at the Big A, but baseball bettors are undeterred and lifted the total from 8.5 to 9, not convinced the starting pitchers will to the job. For Oakland, this is Jesse Hahn’s fourth different attempt as starter and he is 2-4, with a 5.53 ERA in that role this season. The Angels trade for Ricky Nolasco (4-8, 5.13) for reasons unknown has him taking the ball. With pitching like this backed with two ugly bullpens and Albert Pujols turning back the clock at the plate since the All-Star break, the OVER is the right choice for MLB picks. Almost forgot, these AL West rivals are 6-0 OVER in Anaheim this season.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (967) TEXAS at (968) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET FSSW, MASN
The addition of Wade Miley (7-8, 4.98) is not sending fear into the hearts of those assembling baseball picks, taking the total from 9 to 9.5. On the surface I agree, but when digging further into the numbers, not as convinced about the line move. Both offenses are bit chilly in past seven games with Texas at 3.3 runs per game and Baltimore at 3.6 RPG. The Orioles have also shown proclivity towards lower scoring games when the bats are quiet, with 17-6 UNDER mark after three or more consecutive Under’s this season. With the Birds 10-0 UNDER versus an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of this season, let’s go that direction.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (969) TORONTO at (970) HOUSTON 8:10 ET RSN, RTSW
If you have been keeping track of this AL series, either the pitching has been exceptional or the hitting atrocious. After three conflicts, viewers have seen 10 total runs and tonight’s total is headed the same direction, dropped from 8.5 to 8. Looking at who will take the mound first for each club, hard to imagine a slow-pitch softball breaks out with a ton of runs. Left-hander J.A. Happ (14-3, 3.16) has been nothing short of fantastic and Mike Fiers (7-4, 4.42) fires the ball at home much better with a 3.39 ERA. When we match the Astros being 9-1 UNDER at home with an on-base percentage of .260 or worse over their last three outings, with the Blue Jays 7-0 UNDER away after batting .225 or worse over a 10-game span, we should have us some one-way action.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 142-137-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 126-105-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 266-245-2