Had a great conversation with handicapping expert Robert Ferringo of Doc’s Sports (who is 3rd in units won in the latest Sports-Watch NBA rankings) the other day and we covered a lot of territory, including talking about betting the NBA. In this conversation I brought up an easier way to make money betting basketball is to ride along with the Miami Heat. Since LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh have gotten together, I have found them to be among the streakiest teams to wager on I could remember.
No team has been under greater scrutiny than Miami the last two-plus seasons when this triumvirate came together. With last night’s loss in Portland, the Heat is in one of those funks at 1-7 against the spread. But this only tells one side the defending NBA champion’s story.
Starting in the middle of November, the Miami were Play Against material at 2-6 ATS. This was immediately followed by a highly profitable stretch of 8-1 ATS, which has led to their current down period.
With last year’s delayed start of the season, beginning with their second contest of the year, the Heat were 1-4, followed by a 6-3 ATS mark, which gave way to a 0-5 spread run. When February arrived, the James Gang was a smoldering 9-2 ATS and this went right into a 1-7 ATS downturn.
All NBA teams have positive and negative streaks winning and losing games, with the same being true when opposed against oddsmakers. However, Miami’s are more extreme and they have fewer even betting periods (5-5 ATS for example) than most teams.
This is not a new revelation either; as this began to occur almost from day one the trio was formulated.
Their first month together in 2010, they were 2-12 ATS in November. This was immediately followed by a money-grabbing 10-2-1 ATS spurt from Dec. 1-25, but once January arrived, the Heat cooled off to 1-5-1 ATS. As has been the Heat’s custom, they immediately reeled off five straight spread winners thereafter. Beginning on Feb. 24 in 2011, Miami was strictly Play Against material yet again at 0-7 ATS and they finally closed the regular season on a 6-2 spread run out.
The only way to profit from mercurial Miami is to follow them closely and whatever direction they head, be on the side they are trending towards.
11th Hour Sports has sprinted to the head of the NBA leader board in units won at the Sports Watch monitor. In second place is Ross Benjamin who has been outstanding in all facets of betting basketball. In the fourth and fifth sports are Vegas Sports Informer and Rocky Sheridan. VSI is the leader in win percentage at over 63 percent!
How to use these NBA Power Ratings is to take the current ratings in game matchups and figure the attached home court advantages listed next to the teams.
|Boston +3.5||117||116||116||Denver +5||118||117||119|
|Brooklyn +3||116||118||117||Minnesota +3.5||115||115||116|
|New York +4.5||116||120||119||Oklahoma City +4.5||120||121||122|
|Philadelphia +3||116||116||113||Portland +4||114||115||117|
|Toronto +3||113||112||113||Utah +4||115||115||117|
|Chicago +3||116||116||117||Dallas +3||116||116||113|
|Cleveland +2.5||113||112||111||Houston +3.5||113||117||118|
|Detroit +3||113||112||112||Memphis +4.5||117||120||121|
|Indiana +4.5||117||116||118||New Orleans +3||112||111||112|
|Milwaukee +3||114||115||116||San Antonio +5||119||122||123|
|Atlanta +3||115||118||117||Golden State +3.5||114||118||119|
|Charlotte +2.5||112||109||110||L.A. Clippers +5||117||120||123|
|Miami +4.5||120||122||120||L.A. Lakers +3.5||119||115||115|
|Orlando +2.5||111||114||112||Phoenix +3||113||113||112|
|Washington +3||112||108||107||Sacramento +3||113||112||113|