By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com
With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.
Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.
Thou Shall Not Lay Points Into A No. 1 Seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: do not lay points against No.1 seeds.
That’s because inferior teams are just 20-33-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996.
Worse, if the inferior teams are laying less the 5 points they are just 9-25 ATS, including 3-20 ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or more.
Cleveland and Utah, you’ve been warned.
Tripped Out Favorites
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.
While it’s often times a rare occasion, it’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-14 ATS in these games since 1993.
Worse, if the tripped-out chalk dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map – and out of the playoffs – going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.
Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 60% ATS proposition, going 37-25 ATS.
Best of all, send them home in this role and they respond with aplomb, going 6-1 SU and ATS.
Running On Empty
Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up with a frenzy the next game in this round.
That’s evident by a sparkling 22-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.
FYI: Put these same favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 17-4 ATS, including 14-1 SUATS when laying four or more points.
There you have it. Four rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.