Must Know Line Moves and Free Picks for August 12th


After the opening day of NFL exhibition football, not as much activity tonight, thus, line moves on one contest, plus a trio of actual meaningful baseball contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (181-140, 56.5% of late, including 31-18 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (959) CINCINNATI at (960) MILWAUKEE  8:10 ET  FSOH, FSWI		Might have to take back the word – meaningful – from the above paragraph, lets instead go with “Officially counts” with the Reds and Brewers. Where those betting baseball have placed their urgency is on the total, sending it from 8.5 to 9. Even Captain Obvious knows why this would happen, as Homer Bailey (1-1, 7.27 ERA) is still recovering from Tommy John surgery in May of 2015 and Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson (6-11, 4.02) playing the role of nail to the hammer, with an ERA of 12.46 (not a misprint) in past three starts. Yep, take the higher score!

Betting Trend – 97% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB – (973) SEATTLE at (974) OAKLAND  10:05 ET RTNW, CSN-CA

Those wagering on baseball are not letting anything slip by them, with a pitching matchup that Sesame Street would love, with a pair of still nondescript starting pitchers whose last name begins with ‘M’. It will be Sean Manaea (3-7, 4.58) with Oakland and Seattle will feature rookie left-hander Ariel Miranda (1-0, 6.00) making his second major league start. In spite of Miranda’s inexperience, the Mariners has slipped from +135 underdogs to +115. Why you ask, the M’s are hotter than a ghost pepper, winners of six straight and eight of nine and they have won 16 of 23 at the Oakland Coliseum. Probably best to avoid, but small nod to A’s for being at home.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Oakland

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Oakland

MLB – (979) BALTIMORE at (980) SAN FRANCISCO  10:15 ET  MASN2, CSN-BA (side and total)

This interleague affair has two teams exhaling before starting three-game series. Baltimore ended three-game losing streak with nine-run outburst across the bay yesterday and San Francisco remained in first place after laborious road trip. Two hot pitchers at opposite ends of their career path will do business and it affected the side and total this evening. Dylan Bundy (5-3, 3.05) takes the ball for the Orioles at 23 years old and is showing great promise. Matt Cain (4-6, 5.16) might only be 31, but in pitchers years, like dog years, he is much older. Because he has a string of 10 consecutive scoreless innings, the total his dipped from 8 to 7.5, though doubts remain how long Cain will be able to keep it going. Influential money is on the Birds to soar, up from -115 to -125 or more depending on the sportsbook. My belief is the day off will benefit the Giants more and think at least eight runs will be scored.


Betting Trend – 74% backing San Francisco and 73% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans San Francisco and Over

NFLX – (269) CLEVELAND at (270) GREEN BAY  8:00 ET  Local Networks (side and total)

With Green Bay presumed to not have any of their real playmakers available or at least extremely limited, the Packers are down to -2.5 point home favorite from -4 and the total is heading the same way, now at 35 from opening 36.5. Truthfully, not much to explain as Cleveland does not bring much to the mix. I’ll support the Pack because they are at home and have solid history of home OVER’s in the preseason at 28-11.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Cleveland and 73% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Green Bay and Over

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 153-143-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 128-108-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 276-257-2


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