It is the last Saturday of June and by now the barbecue and outside activities should be in full gear. Also, the MLB odds are rather sharp which means baseball handicappers have to even better.
This can certainly be done with diligence, expertise and some luck and we have all three elements going against the sportsbooks in nailing 10 of 12 this week on the run line. Let’s see what we can do on Saturday to stay hot with MLB picks.
The Nationals took care of business last night against Philadelphia 5-2 behind Max Scherzer and looks to do the same with Gio Gonzalez (5-4, 4.41 ERA) this afternoon. Washington has won seven straight and it’s heralded starting pitching is doing what many thought they were capable of and they have a silly 0.53 ERA with three runs conceded in last 51 1/3 innings.
Gonzalez was a participant in this stretch in his last time out, but pitching on the road has been more of a challenge for the left-hander with 5.89 ERA this season. He will take on Adam Morgan (1-0, 1.59), who will try to build on a quality major league debut Sunday in which he shut down St. Louis on six hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 9-2 victory.
The run line betting odds are definitely shaded compared to the money line on Washington at -105 (-1.5) compared to -170 on the ML, but the lack of value will not scare us off because it is about winning and road favorites with a money line of -125 or more , who own a 54% to 62% record playing a team that wins less than 38 percent of their games, are 88-28 the past five seasons and mostly importantly, winning by 2.3 runs per contest.
Since June 7th, Cincinnati is 14-4 on the run line and we think they add another number in the win column today in New York. The Mets have scored more than two runs once in their last nine outings, hitting a feeble .167 as a team and we are convinced they are not going to find their stroke against Cincinnati rookie Michael Lorenzen (3-2, 3.56), who has a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts.
New York will counter with talented Matt Harvey (7-5, 3.18), who is wholly capable of limiting a Reds offense which only produces 3.6 RPG away from then Queen City.