Meaningful Line Moves and Free Picks for March 23


Today brings a little bit of everything for line moves from the Sweet 16, the NBA and action on the ice. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (34-17-1 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

CBB – (813) MICHIGAN vs. (814) OREGON 7:05 ET CBS		One could almost get the impression Michigan is being guided by something other than just playing good basketball. Since their airplane accident, the Wolverines have been playing at level which they had not all season and now they are acquiring additional backers, having gone from a Pick to -1.5 against Oregon in the Sweet 16. While it is a terrific story, this is the best team the Wolverines will have faced in this magical seven-game winning streak and the Ducks have the right mixture of defense and star power to knock off Michigan.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Michigan

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Oregon

CBB – (815) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (816) GONZAGA 7:35 ET  TBS

The question about this contest is can Gonzaga handle 40 minutes of “Press” Virginia? The Mountaineers are 8-1 OVER against teams that average 12 or less turnovers a game, averaging 80 PPG and this is one of the lead reasons why the total jumped from 147 to 149.5. But what happens if the Zags do not give up easy baskets and their defense, which is even better from a statistical profile, contains West Virginia’s half court offense? Not an easy call, but I’ll side this game will go OVER, as both teams have mostly shot the orange well the last couple weeks and we will reach 150 points.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over


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NBA – (801) TORONTO at (802) MIAMI 7:05 ET  SN1, SUN

Thought-provoking line move based on how both teams are playing in particular roles. Anyone making NBA picks realizes Miami has been as good as any team since Jan. 17th, posting a sensational 23-6 and 24-5 ATS record. Toss is the Heat are 14-4 SU and ATS on the season as home favorites and them heating up from -3 to -4.5 is very sensible. But before we lay out the cash, consider Toronto is 11-6 ATS as road underdog, losing by just 3.1 PPG. Love to make a case to take the points but with purple dinosaurs, but as Joey from the Bronx, who now lives in West Palm Beach might say, “fogettabouttit”.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Miami

Doug’s VPID Take – Miami covers


Massive showdown in the NHL with two of the best teams in the league, who happen to be in the same division and are trying desperately to finish first in the Metropolitan to avoid potential nightmare first round series. Washington was cruising and looked like a lock to win division, but a four-game losing streak brought them back to Pittsburgh and Columbus and now the battle is on. The Capitals have gone on to win three of four, but the Blue Jackets have been steadily been gaining ground with 7-2 record and could tie the Caps with a regulation victory. Oddly, this is the third straight matchup in Washington and the Capitals have been beefed up from -160 to -180 on the money line. Though Columbus is impressive 10-2 revenging a shutout loss, the Caps have won 17 of 19 times on home ice.

Betting Trend – 98% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 68-79-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 29-40-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 101-115-3 ATS


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