Meaningful Line Moves and Free Picks for June 28th


For line moves today, the money lines so far have been real quiet, thus, all out attention will be focused on the changing totals in baseball. The two late afternoon games had line moves, but we did not think you would have enough time to look over. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (169-115, 59.5%), to see what we are thinking. See you back Friday.

MLB – (955) N.Y. METS at (956) MIAMI  7:10 ET  SNY, FSFL	Baseball bettors are convinced the Mets will knock Miami’s Jeff Locke (0-3, 5.70 ERA) around and shoved the total from 9 to 9.5. To make matters worse, Locke has a 6.63 ERA versus New York and we know what kind of OVER team the Metropolitans have been at 46-21. With the Mets 13-4 OVER as a road underdog of +100 or higher and Locke 18-6 OVER the past two years, the adjustment makes perfect sense.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over


Many of those betting baseball took the Over in last night’s contest between these division rivals and were rewarded and they are coming right back and doing the same in lifting the total from 9 to 9.5. Chase Anderson (6-2, 2.92) has been very good all season with his sinking fastball, but he’s had mixed results at Great American Ballpark. If the Reds can get into the Brewers bullpen early enough, Cincy should reach 17-6 OVER this month because their pitching staff is allowing 5.5 RPG.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over


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MLB – (973) N.Y. YANKEES at (974) CHIC. WHITE SOX  8:10 ET  YES, CSN-C+

I fully understand both these AL clubs offenses have been on dim, but I cannot support the total slipping from 9.5 to 9. Let’s consider Masahiro Tanaka (5-7, 5.74), who despite coming off arguably his best start in some time, has been taken deep 21 times already this season in just 84 2/3 innings. Carlos Rodon comes off the DL for Chicago and while his velocity picked up in his rehab starts in the minors, he was being batted around. No problem for yours truly taking the OVER, since the Yanks bullpen has also been vulnerable.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

MLB – (979) L.A. DODGERS at (980) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET  SNLA, FSW

Last night the total in this I-5 rivalry came down from 9.5 to 8 and that proved accurate with a 4-0 Dodgers shutout. The scene shifts from Chavez Ravine to Orange County and once again the total is crumbling from 9 to 8.5. Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6, 4.35) only has two quality starts out of a dozen and the Angels Alex Meyer (3-4, 4.20) was doing well until his last start (5 runs in 3 1/3 innings). Each team has been shutout by the other in the past two days and I will forecast offensive breakout and bet the higher number.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 137-144-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 87-77-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 215-204-11 ATS


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