Meaningful Line Moves and Free Picks for June 27th


Let’s move ahead on line moves for today and check the four biggest ones in a day filled with a great deal of activity. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (166-114, 59.2%), to see what we are thinking. See you back tomorrow.


With Cincinnati falling apart and Milwaukee trying to hold on to first place in the NL Central, those betting baseball are focused on the total in a big way and moved it from 9 to 10. Both have been strong OVER teams, the Brewers at 42-31 and the Reds at 45-26. In truth, neither Junior Guerra (1-1, 3.11 ERA) nor Tim Adleman (4-4, 4.30) are in a spot for a higher score, but both teams bullpens have pushed a number of scores to OVER’s and though the total is a full run higher, you have to consider Cincy is 15-4 OVER after allowing eight runs or more this season.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

MLB – (907) ST. LOUIS at (908) ARIZONA  9:40 ET  FAMW, FSAZ	This line move caught me off-guard. St. Louis opened as a +101 underdog and has been flipped to a -120 favorite at Arizona. The Cards Carlos Martinez (6-6, 2.87) has pitched better than his record, but he’s done his part to contribute to the Redbirds 15-20 road record with 2-5 mark and 4.29 ERA. Also, Arizona has been magnificent at Chase Field with a 29-10 record and the Snakes starter Taijuan Walker (6-3, 3.43) has not exactly been a pauper. The D-Backs have been great at home, have the better squad that makes fewer mistakes and are 12-2 after allowing one run or less this season.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Arizona


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MLB – (909) ATLANTA at (910) SAN DIEGO 10:10 ET  FSSE, FSSD

Is it time to break up the Padres? San Diego unquestionably was the worst team in baseball coming into the season. In spite of a still poor record, they have taken season series from the Cubs and just took series from Detroit and have been moved from +101 to -121 home favorites against Atlanta. The Friars are very respectable .500 club at home and Jhoulys Chacin (6-6, 4.95) has thrived at Petco Park with 4-1 mark and sensational 1.72 ERA. Nevertheless, Atlanta is on a 7-2 run and the Pads are 11-33 having won three of four, which leads me to the road dog.

Betting Trend – 62% backing San Diego

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Atlanta

MLB – (923) N.Y. YANKEES at (924) CHIC. WHITE SOX  8:10 ET  YES, CSN-C

New York will get a firsthand look at an opposing pitcher they may be pursuing in the not too distant future in Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69). The left-hander has not been as effective since inheriting the ace role with Chris Sale’s departure and he will try and match tosses with the Yankees Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30). While I agree the total of 9.5 was too high, the adjusted figure of 8 does seem too low with the Bronx Bombers 24-12 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 135-143-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 86-77-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 213-202-11 ATS


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