Let’s move ahead on line moves for today and check the four biggest ones in a day filled with a great deal of activity. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (166-114, 59.2%), to see what we are thinking. See you back tomorrow.
MLB – (905) MILWAUKEE at (906) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET FSWI, FSOH
With Cincinnati falling apart and Milwaukee trying to hold on to first place in the NL Central, those betting baseball are focused on the total in a big way and moved it from 9 to 10. Both have been strong OVER teams, the Brewers at 42-31 and the Reds at 45-26. In truth, neither Junior Guerra (1-1, 3.11 ERA) nor Tim Adleman (4-4, 4.30) are in a spot for a higher score, but both teams bullpens have pushed a number of scores to OVER’s and though the total is a full run higher, you have to consider Cincy is 15-4 OVER after allowing eight runs or more this season.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (907) ST. LOUIS at (908) ARIZONA 9:40 ET FAMW, FSAZ
This line move caught me off-guard. St. Louis opened as a +101 underdog and has been flipped to a -120 favorite at Arizona. The Cards Carlos Martinez (6-6, 2.87) has pitched better than his record, but he’s done his part to contribute to the Redbirds 15-20 road record with 2-5 mark and 4.29 ERA. Also, Arizona has been magnificent at Chase Field with a 29-10 record and the Snakes starter Taijuan Walker (6-3, 3.43) has not exactly been a pauper. The D-Backs have been great at home, have the better squad that makes fewer mistakes and are 12-2 after allowing one run or less this season.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Arizona
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MLB – (909) ATLANTA at (910) SAN DIEGO 10:10 ET FSSE, FSSD
Is it time to break up the Padres? San Diego unquestionably was the worst team in baseball coming into the season. In spite of a still poor record, they have taken season series from the Cubs and just took series from Detroit and have been moved from +101 to -121 home favorites against Atlanta. The Friars are very respectable .500 club at home and Jhoulys Chacin (6-6, 4.95) has thrived at Petco Park with 4-1 mark and sensational 1.72 ERA. Nevertheless, Atlanta is on a 7-2 run and the Pads are 11-33 having won three of four, which leads me to the road dog.
Betting Trend – 62% backing San Diego
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
MLB – (923) N.Y. YANKEES at (924) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET YES, CSN-C
New York will get a firsthand look at an opposing pitcher they may be pursuing in the not too distant future in Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.69). The left-hander has not been as effective since inheriting the ace role with Chris Sale’s departure and he will try and match tosses with the Yankees Luis Severino (5-3, 3.30). While I agree the total of 9.5 was too high, the adjusted figure of 8 does seem too low with the Bronx Bombers 24-12 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 135-143-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 86-77-3 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 213-202-11 ATS