Meaningful Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 31st

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For Tuesday, we have your typical NBA and college basketball line moves and have our first look at the Super Bowl numbers after more than a week for them to stew. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (705) SACRAMENTO at (706) HOUSTON 8:05 ET  CSN-CA, RTSW

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Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Houston is back home from a four-game road trip in which they closed 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU). But if the Rockets feel weary, what about Sacramento who concludes eight-game road trip tonight and have had just four days off, which does not include the travel time. Last night the Kings had makeup game in Philadelphia and after building 14-point first quarter lead, they looked tired and were outscored by 17 points the rest of the way in losing by three. Those betting basketball are convinced Sacramento is wore out and moved them from +10 to +12 at Houston. The Kings are 4-2-1 ATS on the trip and 17-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, but can they muster the energy?

Betting Trend – 60% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Sacramento

CBB – (727) IOWA at (728) RUTGERS 7:00 ET  BTN  (side and total)

Though Iowa is 1-7 and 1-6 ATS on the road this campaign, the Hawkeyes have flown from a Pick to -2 at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 1-8 and 3-6 ATS in Big Ten action. The outcome could likely be determined by road/home scenario where Iowa averages two more made three’s per game. The total has slide from 143 to 141 with Rutgers a below average shooting team who holds opposing teams to under 40 percent accuracy and the Hawkeyes only score 69.4 PPG away from Iowa City.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Iowa and 94% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Iowa and Under

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CBB – (751) DAYTON at (752) FORDHAM 9:00 ET  CBSSN

With the A-10 down from prior years, Dayton is tied with the fewest losses with a couple other teams and can strengthen it’s position with a victory at Fordham. No one is disputing the Flyers should not win, but not everyone is convinced they can handle double digits on the road and have been taken down from -11 to -8. Offensively, the Rams are capable and 13 days ago they knocked off VCU 69-67 on the receiving end of 10.5 points at home. Nevertheless, we will lean with Dayton who is 10-2 and 8-4 ATS at Fordham with much lower number.

Betting Trend – 96% backing Fordham

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Dayton

NFL – Sunday(101) NEW ENGLAND vs. (102) ATLANTA  6:30 ET  FOX

Soon after New England pounded out victory over Pittsburgh to win the AFC championship, oddsmakers released the Patriots as a three-point favorite with total of 58.5.

Initially, there was influx of sharp and public money on New England, but sportsbooks were very aware that taking the Patriots off -3 to -3.5 was quite risky, which most likely would have lead to quite a bit of Atlanta wagers, which would drive the number right back to 3 again.

As we head towards Super Bowl, the early word among most sports betting analysts is their would be more money coming on New England and few would be surprised Bill Belichick’s team was not at -3.5 or -4 more by kickoff. However since, the tone of the sportsbook operators has changed with quite a bit more sharp money coming in on Atlanta and now the Falcons at +2.5 is thought to be a real possibility.

In the last dozen Super Bowls there have been four spreads that closed at three or less and the favorite is 2-2 ATS. Since Tom Brady has returned, his team has only been this small a favorite once and that was at Denver in a 16-3 win. The Dirty Birds are 4-1 ATS as underdogs of four or less.

I had mentioned the total of 58.5 and just days after this was released, the total settled at 58, before being elevated back to 58.5 on Monday. In case you missed, this is historic number, as it would be the highest in Super Bowl history. The previous high was 56.5 points in 2010, in the New Orleans and Indianapolis encounter, with two high profile quarterbacks named Drew Brees and Payton Manning.

Defense is the strongest indicator for both teams OVER/UNDER season totals in spite of the potent offenses. New England is 7-7 versus the number on the total since Game 5 when Brady came back and Atlanta is crazy 15-2-1 OVER for the season.

Betting Trend – 70% backing New England and 58% on Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 25-23 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 13-13-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 35-39-1 ATS

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