Meaningful Line Moves and Free Picks for April 3


Baseball is back which means the daily grind starts and we have early line moves for you. College basketball crowns a new champion and we break down the line moves on that as well. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (47-25 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

CBB – (601) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (602) GONZAGA  9:20 ET  CBS		With both teams are scoring well into the 80’s and the total is on the rise from 153 to 155. I agree, I can see this as free-flowing up and down game. Only thing that you would even consider is early jitters, but both teams can get move the ball up the floor so quickly that should solve any of those woes. I was also going to talk about North Carolina falling from -2 to a Pick, but before I could reach that point, they were back to -1. The betting by the public and sharps is basically split on the sides.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

MLB – (957) SAN DIEGO at (958) L.A. DODGERS 4:10 ET  ESPN

With the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw hovering around a -350 favorite over seemingly hapless San Diego, the total has drawn enough action to be moved off 6 to 6.5. Does that mean those betting baseball think the Padres will score a run off of Kershaw or will the L.A. hitters just chase Jhoulys Chacin by the fifth inning? I’m thinking the latter is more likely.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over


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MLB – (963) SEATTLE at (964) HOUSTON  8:10 ET  RTNW, RTSW

With Felix Hernandez coming off a poor injury-plagued year and Houston expected to win the AL West, baseball bettors are grabbing Houston right away and taken them from -125 to -145 in the season opener for both clubs. King Felix has only pitched 11 innings in his last three starts against the Astros, permitting 22 runs (17 earned). Dallas Keuchel is also coming off rough campaign after winning Cy Young in 2015 and he and his teammates were  5-11 as a favorite of -125 to -175 last season. Tough call, but I will side with the ‘Stros pen to win the game.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston

MLB – (969) CLEVELAND at (970) TEXAS  7:05 ET  ESPN

I actually understand why enough bettors moved Texas from -125 to +104 underdogs against the AL champions. Yu Darvish has something to prove and Corey Kluber was awesome the last time we saw him pitching on normal rest. But this is not the late season, we are just getting started and Cleveland with Kluber has lost nine of 10 in April.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Texas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 75-88-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 35-41-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 110-129-4 ATS


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